AFL Preview: Hawks v Swans

Hawthorn v Sydney
Friday 7:50pm at MCG

Hawthorn’s late-season surge faces its toughest test when the unstoppable Swans come to town in a must-win match for the Hawks.

Form
Hawthorn are up to 12th on the ladder with a 7-9-1 record following their demolition of Fremantle at Subiaco. The Hawks have lost just one of their last five games, a close defeat at the hands of Geelong. Hawthorn have posted scores of 96-plus in four of their last five after doing so just twice in the first 12 rounds.

Sydney have surged to sixth on the ladder on the back of seven straight wins and 10 wins in their last 11 matches. The Swans have conceded fewer than 60 points in three of their last four and now rank second defensively in the AFL. Sydney rank seventh in scoring. The Swans have won four straight in Melbourne, three by margins of 35-plus.

Stats That Matter

– The Hawks have won the last two and 8 of the last 11 against the Swans.
– Hawthorn have covered 5 of the last 7 clashes with Sydney.
– The last three clashes have gone under the total.
– Sydney are 8-11 ATS with a 12-7 under record at the MCG dating back to 2012.
– The Hawks have gone under in 6 of their last 8 at the MCG.
– Five of the last six nigh games at the MCG have gone under.
– Hawthorn are 9-3 ATS with an 8-4 under record at the MCG as an underdog.
– Sydney have covered four straight and 10 of their last 15 interstate.
– The Swans are 24-16 ATS as an interstate favourite since 2012.
– Sydney are 13-4 ATS as an interstate favourite of less than three goals.
– The under is 23-12 is when an interstate favourite of less than three goals kept an opponent to 60 or fewer.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Hawthorn 8-9, Sydney 9-8
2017 Over-Under: Hawthorn 4-13, Sydney 7-10

What To Expect
The under looks close to a good thing in this blockbuster to open Round 19. There are some big under angles at play here, primarily small interstate favourites off a big defensive effort seeing the under salute in 23 of 35 since 2012. Night games at the MCG go under, these two have a recent history of under games and the Hawks are a big under team as an underdog at the MCG.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 6

Recommended Bet
Under 164.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets
Tom Mitchell has posted 130 in four straight weeks and has hit it in 8 of his last 11. He is averaging north of 130 this year.

Recommended Bet
Tom Mitchell 130+ Points ($2.15)