AFL Preview: Kangaroos v Demons

Nth Melbourne v Melbourne
Saturday 1:45pm at Blundstone Arena

North are looking for a little bit of pride over the last few rounds while Melbourne can sniff a Top 4 berth following their win over Port.

Form
North Melbourne’s dismal season goes from bad to worse with their seventh straight defeat coming last Saturday at the hands of rivals Essendon. The Kangaroos are now 17th on the ladder with a 4-13 record. North actually rank eighth in scoring but a very poor 17th in defence. The Roos have conceded at least 118 points in three of their last four.

Melbourne have won six of their last eight with both defeats coming against teams above them on the ladder. The Demons are now seventh on the ladder with a 10-7 record. Melbourne rank sixth in scoring and ninth in defence. The Demons have not scored 100 points in their last five matches while they have conceded over 100 in just one of their last six.

Stats That Matter

– North have won 16 straight against Melbourne dating back to 2007.
– The last five matches between the teams has gone over the total.
– North has covered 5 of the last 7 games against the Dees.
– North are 10-4 ATS in Hobart since 2012, including 4-2 ATS as an underdog.
– Melbourne are 9-20 ATS as a favourite since 2012, covering just 2 of their last 11.
– The Demons have covered just 3 of their last 11 day games.
– North have covered just 5 of their last 15 day games.
– North have covered 4 of their last 5 after conceding 130.
– Melbourne are 9-15 ATS after conceding 70 or fewer points.

Betting Data
2017 Line: North Melbourne 7-10, Melbourne 7-10
2017 Over-Under: North Melbourne 10-7, Melbourne 9-8

What To Expect
North got the job done last week – just – as one of the bets of the season and they are again an outstanding bet here against Melbourne. North are usually at their best when playing in Hobart and they have a remarkable run of domination against Melbourne dating back to 2007. Melbourne are awful bets when favoured so the confidence levels are high with North here.

How It’s Shaping Up
North Melbourne by 4

Recommended Bet
North Melbourne +16.5 ($1.91)