AFL Preview: Suns v Tigers

Gold Coast v Richmond
Saturday 7:25pm at Metricon Stadium

Gold Coast have been cast in the role of spoiler here when they host a Richmond team eyeing a Top 4 spot.

Form
Gold Coast have endured a disappointing season with just six wins from their 17 games, leaving them 15th on the ladder. The Suns have won just one of their last six games. Gold Coast have conceded 103-plus in four of their last five games and rank 16th in defence. Gold Coast rate 12th in scoring.

Richmond are up to fourth on the ladder thanks to their 11-6 record. The Tigers have won their last two and six of their last eight. The Tigers have kept opponents to 81 or under in 10 of their last 11 matches. Richmond rank 13th in attack but have the third best defence in the AFL. Richmond are 5-1 against bottom six teams this year with all wins coming by more than three goals.

Stats That Matter

– Richmond have won three of their last four against Gold Coast.
– Gold Coast have covered 4 of the last 5 against the Tigers.
– The Suns are 23-20 ATS as an underdog at Metricon Stadium with a 24-19 under record.
– The under is 15-7 in night games at Metricon.
– Richmond have covered 3 of 4 interstate games this season.
– Richmond are 23-12 under interstate since 2012.
– The Tigers are 9-5 ATS as an interstate favourite with a 10-4 under record.
– Richmond have gone under in 10 of their last 12 night games.
– The Tigers are 14-6 under after keeping opponents to 60 or less.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Gold Coast 8-9, Richmond 12-5
2017 Over-Under: Gold Coast 10-7, Richmond 4-13

What To Expect
The under is one of the best bets of Round 19. The Tigers have been a monstrous under team this year and all the angles are plumping for a low-scoring match. The Tigers are an under team interstate, particularly at night or as a favourite, while the Suns are a big under team at home at night. There won’t be many points in this one.

How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 28

Recommended Bet
Under 170.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets
Dustin Martin has hit 120 in five of his last nine and has huge scope for upside.

Recommended Bet
Dustin Martin 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.15)