Collingwood v Adelaide
Sunday 3:20pm at MCG

Collingwood’s season looks all but over as the bloodletting begins with an internal review but they must find something against league-leading Adelaide.

Form
Collingwood are 13th on the ladder with seven wins and 10 losses and now only a mathematical chance of playing finals footy. The Magpies rank ninth in scoring and 13th in defence. Collingwood have won their last two against the Gold Coast and West Coast, staging an incredible comeback in the latter. The Pies have conceded at least 85 points in seven straight games.

Adelaide are top of the table with a 13-4 record. They have the clear top attack in the AFL averaging 112 points per game while they rank fourth in defence. The Crows have won four straight and have conceded 77 or less in seven of their last nine matches. Adelaide have posted 100 plus in five of their last nine.

Stats That Matter

– The Crows have won four straight against the Magpies, all by margins of between 16 and 28.
– Adelaide have covered 4 of the last 5 against the Magpies.
– Collingwood are 35-49 ATS at the MCG since 2012, covering just 3 of their last 10..
– The Magpies have covered 5 of their last 6 as an underdog at the MCG.
– The Crows have covered just 5 of their 13 games at the MCG since 2013.
– Adelaide are 22-14 ATS as an interstate favourite since 2012.
– The over is 24-12 when Adelaide are an interstate favourite.
– Adelaide are 14-5 ATS with a 15-4 over record in day games as an interstate favourite.
– Collingwood are 14-31 ATS in day matches in Melbourne since 2012 with a 25-20 over record.
– Adelaide are 16-6 over interstate after conceding 70 or fewer interstate.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Collingwood 9-8, Adelaide 12-5
2017 Over-Under: Collingwood 9-8, Adelaide 7-10

What To Expect
Hard to go past Adelaide in this one in what looks like it could be a high scoring affair (and an over opportunity if the weather holds). The Crows are dominant as an interstate favourite and particularly so in daytime conditions. They’ve got a strong recent record over Collingwood to boot. The Magpies are an awful daytime team and don’t have a particularly strong record at the MCG.

How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 32

Recommended Bet
Adelaide -19.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Rory Sloane is a bit of a rocks or diamonds fantasy proposition this year but his price of $7 for over 130 is just wrong. Sloane has hit 130-plus seven times this year in 17 games.

Recommended Bet
Rory Sloane 130+ Fantasy Points ($7.00)


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