AFL Preview: Eagles v Lions

West Coast v Brisbane
Sunday 4:40pm at Domain Stadium

Round 19 comes to an end with West Coast fighting to get back into the Top 8 while Brisbane will have a chance to get off the bottom of the ladder.

Form
West Coast are ninth on the ladder with a 9-8 record. The Eagles rank 10th in scoring and eighth in defence. West Coast have won just three of their last nine and astonishingly blew a big lead against Collingwood last week. The Eagles have been held to 90 or fewer in nine of their last 10. West Coast are 6-3 at home this year.

Brisbane have actually found a little bit of form with three wins in their last seven matches. They remain last on the ladder with a 4-13 record. Brisbane have the worst defence in the AFL by some margin while their attack rates 15th. Brisbane have lost their three non-Melbourne interstate visits all by 38 points or more.

Stats That Matter

– West Coast have won the last six against Brisbane.
– West Coast have covered 5 of the last 6 against Brisbane.
– Since 2012, the over is 5-2 in Eagles-Lions games.
– West Coast are 41-32 ATS at Subiaco since 2012.
– When favoured by more than 40 points at Subiaco, the Eagles are an incredible 11-1 ATS.
– Brisbane have covered 6 of 7 interstate this year.
– The Lions are 16-24 ATS as an interstate underdog of 30 or more.
– Interstate outsiders of 40 or more off a win cover at just 41% since 2012.

Betting Data
2017 Line: West Coast 7-10, Brisbane 10-7
2017 Over-Under: West Coast 7-10, Brisbane 11-6

What To Expect
It is hard to go past West Coast with their incredible record as a big home favourite, covering 11 of 12 when favoured by 40 or more since 2012 at Subiaco. The Lions have been in pretty good form over the last month and have travelled well but they seem like lambs to the slaughter here.

How It’s Shaping Up
West Coast by 62

Recommended Bet
West Coast -45.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Andre Gaff has hit 110-plus in two of his last four and averaged over 30 disposals in the two games he played the Lions in last year.

Recommended Bet
Andrew Gaff 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.80)