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New Zealand Warriors v Cronulla Sharks
Friday, July 28, 6pm (AEST) at Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland
The Sharks have been excellent on the road this season and can’t afford to drop this match against the Warriors in their quest to secure a Top 4 spot. Fa’amanu Brown replaces the injured James Maloney at five-eighth, while Jack Bird makes his return after missing last week’s match against the Rabbitohs.
History
The Sharks have won seven of their last nine against the Warriors and have won 3 of the last 4 at Mt Smart.
Form
New Zealand are 12th on the ladder with a 7-11 record as they stare down the barrel of a sixth straight season without finals football. The Warriors have lost three on the trot and are 3-7 against Top 8 teams this year. New Zealand have conceded at least 24 points in six of their last nine. Cronulla are fourth on the ladder with a 12-6 record. They have been outstanding on the road this year with seven wins in eight away games. The Sharks have won just three of their last six matches.
Key Matchup
Kieran Foran v Fa’amanu Brown: Canterbury-bound Foran has added responsibility on his shoulders due to the season-ending injury to Shaun Johnson and the inexperienced Mason Lino playing alongside side him in the halves. Foran ran the ball 24 times for 176 metres in last week’s loss to the Cowboys, but needs to utilise his outside men as well to complement his running game. Utility Brown is listed to play in the Sharks No.6 jersey this week, with James Maloney sidelined with a hand injury. Brown will keep things simple and let halfback Chad Townsend control the ship against his former club. Brown is at his best when he is taking on the line and could find some holes against the Warriors leaky defence.
Stats That Matter
– New Zealand are 7-11 ATS with a 9-9 total number while Cronulla are 7-11 ATS with an 11-7 under record.
– Cronulla have won seven of their last nine against New Zealand though the last four have all been decided by a single score.
– Six of the last seven matches have failed to break 37 points.
– The Sharks have won 3 of the last 4 at Mt Smart.
– The Warriors have covered four of their last five at Mt Smart.
– New Zealand have covered just 4 of their last 15 after scoring 12 or fewer.
– The Sharks have covered 7 of their last 10 road games.
– Cronulla are 13-7 ATS interstate over the last four seasons with a 4-0 over record as an interstate favourite.
Final Thoughts
The Warriors look done for the season and face an uphill battle to record another win this year especially with Shaun Johnson on the sidelines. Meanwhile, the Sharks have a strong record over the Warriors in recent years and should have too much class despite the absence of Maloney. Sharks to cover, and the unders if the expected rain arrives in Auckland.
How It’s Shaping Up
Cronulla by 6
Best Bet
Cronulla -3.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 38 ($1.88)
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