AFL Preview: Round 23
Hawthorn Hawks v Carlton Blues
4:40pm AEST, Saturday, September 5
MCG, Melbourne
Best Bet
Over 193.5 Total Match Points ($1.88)
Other Recommended BetsCarlton – Total: Under 59.5 Points ($1.91)
One of the biggest mis-matches of the year as an in-form Hawthorn side takes on a heavily depleted Carlton team. The Hawks spanked Carlton by 138-points in round 17 and another thumping could be on the cards.
Hawthorn $1.01 | Line -75.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($6) | 40+ ($1.14) |Ov. 193.5 ($1.88)
Carlton $17 | Line +75.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($18) | 40+ ($101) | Un. 193.5 ($1.88)
Latest Hawthorn v Carlton Odds
Selection Notes.
The jostling for spots in the Hawthorn side in the lead up to finals is at an all-time high with Sam Mitchell and Paul Puopolo set to return to the side that flogged Brisbane last week. Fringe members Ryan Schoenmakers, Angus Litherland and Brendan Whitecross must wait in the wings. Captain Luke Hodge is still suspended. The Blues have about 25 fit players to choose from with nine of their best 22 out. Andrew Carrazzo will come into the side for his last ever game.
Hawthorn v Carlton – Champion Data Form-Guide
Form
The Hawks are third on the ladder having bounced back from a loss to Port Adelaide by easily taking care of the Lions last weekend. They are averaging 114 points per game in the past three weeks. Hawthorn is 9-3 (7-5 against the line) vs bottom ten teams this year. Barring an upset in the Lions-Dogs game, the Blues will escape the wooden spoon. After upsetting Melbourne, they crashed back to earth against the Giants last week and have now lost seven of their last eight games. Carlton is 0-10 (3-7 against the line) vs top eight teams this year
Latest AFL Round 23 Betting
Stats That MatterThis will be the 163rd meeting between these two inner-Melbourne sides with the Blues leading 102-60. The Hawks have won 12 straight against Carlton dating back to 2005. Since 2010, Carlton is 0-6 (2-4 against the line) vs the Hawks. Their last four games have totalled over 188-points with the last two easily eclipsing 200. Teams favoured by 60-points or more are 4-0 (2-2 against the line) this year. Carlton is 7-17-1 (12-13 against the line) at the MCG under since the start of 2013. The Hawks are 27-7 (17-17 ATL) at the ‘G since the start of 2013. Sam Mitchell has had the most disposals in a Hawthorn game seven times this year (2nd in the AFL).
The Hawks are the best front running side in the competition having lost just once when leading at quarter-time this year (11-1). They are 14-1 when leading at half-time too. Conversely, the Blues are a perfect four from four when they are leading at the last change this year.
Betting Data
2015 Line: Hawthorn 12-9, Carlton 9-12
2015 Over/Under: Hawthorn 15-6, Carlton 13-8
Final Thoughts
This result looks like it could be a carbon copy of the round 17 debacle when the Hawks slaughtered the Blues. The Blues have even less decent players involved and have even less to play for than that night whilst the Hawks will be looking to keep the momentum rolling into the finals.
How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 80 points
Best Bet
Over 193.5 Total Match Points ($1.88)
Other Recommended BetsCarlton – Total: Under 59.5 Points ($1.91)
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