AFL Preview : West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn Hawks

AFL Preview: Qualifying Final
West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn Hawks
8:20pm AEST, Friday, September 11
Domain Stadium, Perth

Best BetHawthorn -4.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended BetsHawthorn 1-39 ($2.30)
Under 164.5 Total Match Points ($1.88)

Hawthorn’s quest for a third consecutive Grand Final appearance begins in earnest now as they cross the nullabor in an attempt to earn a home preliminary. 

West Coast $2.10 | Line +4.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.60) | 40+ ($9) |Ov. 164.5 ($1.88)
Hawthorn    $1.75 | Line -4.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.30) | 40+ ($5.90) | Un. 164.5 ($1.88)


Selection Notes
The Eagles are likely to be without key midfielder Chris Masten (hamstring) with Scott Selwood, Patrick McGinnity, Sam Butler, Murray Newman and Kane Lucas in the running to replace him. Will Schofield should be ready to return from a hamstring injury whilst Jeremy McGovern should play despite a bung shoulder. Eric Mackenzie (knee), Mitch Brown (knee) are other best 22 members missing. For the Hawks, Isaac Smith (knee) will have to pass a fitness test whilst captain Luke Hodge is set to return from suspension. Cyril Rioli and Luke Breust will also return after missing last week with Billy Hartung and Jonathan Simpkin potential inclusions if they want more run.

West Coast v Hawthorn – Champion Data Form-Guide 

Last Time They Met
The Eagles were missing key big men Callum Sinclair and Nic Naitanui whilst enigmatic forward Josh Hill was not in the side. Whilst for the Hawks Brian Lake, David Hale and Will Langford were missing. After a fast start, the Eagles kicked just six goals to 11 after quarter-time to be overrun by 14-points. Eagles defender Jeremy McGovern went off in the final quarter with a hamstring injury. Luke Breust (three goals), Billy Hartung (two) and Shaun Burgoyne (two) kicked multiple goals whilst for the Eagles Jamie Cripps (two), Jack Darling (two) and Josh Kennedy were the main goal scorers. Sam Mitchell (36 disposals) and Andrew Gaff (35) were the main possession getters.

The Eagles tuned up for their first September action in a couple of years with a 95-point win over the Saints. The Eagles are averaging 115 points per game over the last month. West Coast is 6-4 both head to head and against the line against fellow finalists this year. Hawthorn have won their last two games by a combined total of 129-points. The Hawks are 7-2 (6-3 against the line) vs top eight teams this season. Hawthorn average 114 points for in their last four games. 


Stats That Matter
Hawthorn and West Coast have played 44 times with the Eagles leading 24-20. The Hawks have won six out of the last seven games including five in a row. Since 2010, Hawthorn is 6-2 (5-3 against the line) vs West Coast. The Hawks are 11-6 head-to-head (10-7 at the line) when on the road (other than in Launceston) since the start of 2013. They are 3-4 (5-2 against the line) in Perth, since 2010. The Eagles have covered the line a league record 16 times this year. The Eagles are 16-7 both head-to-head and against the line at home in 2014-15. West Coast is 10-2 at home this year with an average winning margin of 66-points – losing to Fremantle and Hawthorn.  The Eagles are 5-5 (4-6 against the line) in Thursday or Friday night matches since the start of 2011. The Hawks are 17-4 (10-11 against the line) on Friday night’s over the past two seasons. Since 2010, the Hawks are 9-4 (7-6 against the line) in finals. The Eagles are 2-3 (2-3 against the line) in finals since the start of 2011. Jarryd Roughead has kicked 17.7 goals in his last four games against the Eagles. Sam Mitchell averages 31 disposals per game in his last six matches. Matt Priddis averages 31 disposals per game in his last nine matches. Josh Kennedy has kicked 14.3 goals in his last three games against the Hawks. Mark LeCras and Josh Kennedy have kicked the first goal in four different games this year. Three of the last four games have totalled over 201-points, though four of the last seven have totalled under 166-points. 

Finals Stats
Since 2011, only 13 of the last 36 finals have totalled over 190-points. In 2014, six of the nine finals totalled over 189-points. Favourites are 19-8 (14-13 against the line) in the finals in the last three years. Since 2012, 23 of the last 28 finals have finished with a 1-39 margin. Since 2010, the Eagles are 2-3 in the finals whilst the Hawks are 9-4. Hawthorn is 6-2 both head to head and against the line vs 2015 finalists. The Eagles are 5-5 both head to head and against the line.

In-Play Insights
West Coast is 6-8 in games decided by 12-points or less in the last three seasons. The Hawks are 10-6. Hawthorn is a finals best 12-1 when leading at quarter time this year whilst they are a finals worst 88% (15-2) when leading at three-quarter time. The Eagles have never won when trailing at the final change this year going 0-3 with one draw. Whilst the Hawks have only triumped once when losing at half-time this year (1-5).

Betting Data
2015 Line:  West Coast 16-6, Hawthorn 12-0
2015 Over/Under: West Coast 13-7, Hawthorn 15-7

How It’s Shaping UpHawthorn by 80 points

Final Thoughts
With rain predicted in Perth on Friday, this one will be a grind and that suits the battle hardened Hawks. With finals experience across every line and the best forward line in the competition, The Wolf likes the Hawks. With Brian Lake, Josh Gibson and James Frawley, the Hawks should be able to nullify Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and co whilst it will be up to Nic Nat to get the Eagles going in the middle. He should be able to dominate the hit-outs, but the Hawks have the cattle to win the clearances and pump the ball quickly to their forwards. 

Best BetHawthorn -5.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended BetsHawthorn 1-39 ($2.30)
Under 164.5 Total Match Points ($1.88)