NRL Preview : Sydney Roosters v Melbourne Storm

NRL Preview

Sydney Roosters v Melbourne Storm
Friday September 11, 7:55pm (AEST), Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Best Bet: Under 36.5 ($1.82)
Other: Melbourne +7.5 ($1.91)

The opening match of the 2015 NRL Finals Series kicks off with a belter between the top two defensive sides in the premiership the Sydney Roosters and the Melbourne Storm. Points will certainly be hard to come by when these two hard-nosed teams square off with a preliminary final berth on the line. 

The Sydney Roosters are unchanged from the team that belted South Sydney last Friday. Mitchell Pearce is a chance of coming into the side but seems unlikely. Melbourne are also unchanged with just a positional swap between Jordan McLean and Tim Glasby.

The Roosters and Storm have played on 29 occasions with Melbourne holding a slight 15-14 edge, averaging a win of 1.06 points. The teams met twice this year with the Storm pinching a 17-16 win in Melbourne before the Roosters dominated 24-2 in Sydney. The teams have played 11 times at Allianz Stadium with the Roosters winning eight, including five of the last six. Four of those five wins were by double figures. The teams have met just once previously in a finals match with the Roosters winning 26-12 in 1998, Melbourne’s first year in the premiership. Points have been rare in recent outings with the average of the last three being 31.67. The Roosters have won three of the last four over the last two years. Mitch Aubusson has scored in his last two 

The Sydney Roosters claimed a third straight minor premiership last Friday with a 12th straight win. They have the best differential in the premiership, the second best attack and the clear best defence. The Chooks  have posted 24-plus in eight of their last nine wins. They have kept teams to 10 points or fewer in seven of their last 10. The Roosters are 10-2 at the SFS this year though four of their last six wins have been by 10 points or fewer. Against Top 8 teams the Roosters are 7-6. Melbourne have the second best defence after finishing fourth on the ladder. They have won six of their last eight and enter this off wins against Top 4 teams North Queeensland and Brisbane. The Storm have kept opponents to single digits in three of their last four. The Storm are 4-4 in NSW this year while they are 8-4 against Top 8 teams. 

This game will be very much won and lost through the middle and the ability of the respective forward packs to get on top but the fullbacks and their ability to create something off the back will decide this one. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been the best fullback in the premiership this year, smashing records for run metres, ranking second in tackle breaks and being the only player with 30 offloads and 90 tackle breaks. He also has 11 tries and 10 assists. His opposite Cameron Munster has emerged as one of the most exciting custodians in the game. He has been exceptional for Melbourne with 91 tackle busts in just 17 games. He is explosive. The Storm are going to need him to be everywhere on Friday.

The Sydney Roosters finished the regular season 14-10 ATS with a 16-8 under record while Melbourne were 13-11 ATS with a 17-7 under record. The two teams are the top two unders teams this year. The Roosters are 10-2 under at home this year while they are 17-10 under at the SFS the last two years. The Roosters have covered six of the last eight at home. Melbourne are 13-6 under in their last 19 as an underdog. The Storm are 1-4 ATS when an outsider of more than a converted try over the last two years. The Storm are 15-7 under interstate over the last two years . Teams on double digit win streaks are 4-12 ATS since 2009. The Roosters are 6-1 ATS off a shutout.

William Hill Medal Voting

The Sydney Roosters are the best front runners in the NRL with a 14-2 record after leading at 20 mins and 17-1 when leading by seven or more at any point in a game. When ahead at halftime the Roosters are 16-3. They are a perfect 14-0 when getting ahead by 13 or more this year. Melbourne are 12-5 after scoring the first try and 10-5 when leading at 20 minutes. The Storm are winning at 75% when they get to a lead of seven or more and a perfect 10-0 when leading by 13. This season a lead of 7 or more has been overcome 19.8% of the time while a halftime deficit has been overcome in 28.7% of matches. The Roosters have overcome two of three 13-point deficits (best in the NRL) while the Storm are 0-6 when falling behind by 13. The Storm are 2-5 when they don’t score the first try. 

NRL In-Play Insights

We have a cracker to open up the finals and make no mistake that this will be defence, defence, defence. The Storm have got their defensive mojo back while the Roosters have been the benchmark all year and now play this without their halfback. The under 36.5 looks like one of the chips-in plays of the week. Melbourne need to start fast but if they do they are well and truly capable of upsetting the Roosters. The Storm have played great choke-out football of late and will give the Roosters their toughest run for a long time. The Chooks are the standard and deserved title favourites but this game is closer than the market suggests.

Under 36.5 ($1.82)

Melbourne +7.5 ($1.91)

Melbourne ($3.10)