"Man City lined up extremely strong and thrashed West Ham away from home in the third round, and with their midweek league game not coming until Wednesday night I'm expecting Pep Guardiola to name a similar strength side for round four, and that makes backing an easy away win a no-brainer."
Back Man City -1 @ 2.50 to beat Crystal Palace
Blackburn 1.83 v Blackpool 4.50; The Draw 4.00
It's hard to recommend any side at odds-on when they're in such poor form, regardless of the opposition, so although Blackburn are undoubtedly the better side and have home advantage they're not for me in the Match Odds market.
Owen Coyle's men have won just one of their last nine Championship fixtures, a run of results that has seen them drop to 23rd in the table.
Blackpool haven't been in the best of form lately either, winning just one of their last six in League Two. But the Tangerines are comfortably in mid-table and will be confident of going to Ewood Park and causing the home side some problems.
From their last eight league games Rovers have been involved in four 3-2 matches, and just shy of 3.5 goals have been scored on average. In a cup tie where both teams are likely to fancy their chances, witnessing at least three goals seems a likely outcome.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.88
Owen Coyle's men have won just one of their last nine Championship fixtures, a run of results that has seen them drop to 23rd in the table.
Blackpool haven't been in the best of form lately either, winning just one of their last six in League Two. But the Tangerines are comfortably in mid-table and will be confident of going to Ewood Park and causing the home side some problems.
From their last eight league games Rovers have been involved in four 3-2 matches, and just shy of 3.5 goals have been scored on average. In a cup tie where both teams are likely to fancy their chances, witnessing at least three goals seems a likely outcome.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.88
Burnley 1.70 v Bristol City 5.90; The Draw 4.10
Of all the clubs priced at above 1.50 this weekend - so we're excluding the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs, Middlesbrough, and Man Utd here - Burnley are easily the most attractively priced to win, even at 1.70.
Sean Dyche's men have been sensational at Turf Moor this season and although the boss is likely to make a few changes for this cup tie the Clarets should still be far too good for struggling Bristol City.
Dyche made changes to his side for the home game against Sunderland in the last round, and his side still won comfortably. And for all that the Black Cats are a very poor side they're still head and shoulders above the Robins in terms of ability.
Lee Johnson's men have lost eight on the spin in the Championship and now sit just two points above the drop zone. With a huge home game in the league on Tuesday night there's every chance that Johnson will also make changes for the trip to Turf Moor, and that for me makes Burnley an absolute banker bet on Saturday.
Recommended Bet
Back Burnley to Win @ 1.70
Sean Dyche's men have been sensational at Turf Moor this season and although the boss is likely to make a few changes for this cup tie the Clarets should still be far too good for struggling Bristol City.
Dyche made changes to his side for the home game against Sunderland in the last round, and his side still won comfortably. And for all that the Black Cats are a very poor side they're still head and shoulders above the Robins in terms of ability.
Lee Johnson's men have lost eight on the spin in the Championship and now sit just two points above the drop zone. With a huge home game in the league on Tuesday night there's every chance that Johnson will also make changes for the trip to Turf Moor, and that for me makes Burnley an absolute banker bet on Saturday.
Recommended Bet
Back Burnley to Win @ 1.70
Chelsea 1.20 v Brentford 19.00; The Draw 7.80
One of the most important things to remember this FA Cup fourth round weekend is that all Premier League and Championship clubs are in league action in midweek, and therefore weakened starting line-ups can be expected even more so than usual.
Antonio Conte made nine changes for the win over Peterborough in the last round, and with a huge clash away to Liverpool to come on Tuesday night surely he will rest the likes of Diego Costa, Eden Hazard, David Luiz, and N'golo Kante again for the visit of Brentford.
The Bees haven't been in the best of form of late and it's hard to envisage them causing even a makeshift Chelsea defence many problems, so hopefully they'll go to Stamford Bridge with a defensive mentality and aim to cling onto their 0-0 for as long as possible.
I fully expect the Blues to win given the strength in Conte's squad, but it might not be the cakewalk that odds of just 1.20 suggest, and given Chelsea are unlikely to bust a gut to run up a big victory then backing Under 2.5 Goals at 3.10 makes some appeal.
Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.10
Antonio Conte made nine changes for the win over Peterborough in the last round, and with a huge clash away to Liverpool to come on Tuesday night surely he will rest the likes of Diego Costa, Eden Hazard, David Luiz, and N'golo Kante again for the visit of Brentford.
The Bees haven't been in the best of form of late and it's hard to envisage them causing even a makeshift Chelsea defence many problems, so hopefully they'll go to Stamford Bridge with a defensive mentality and aim to cling onto their 0-0 for as long as possible.
I fully expect the Blues to win given the strength in Conte's squad, but it might not be the cakewalk that odds of just 1.20 suggest, and given Chelsea are unlikely to bust a gut to run up a big victory then backing Under 2.5 Goals at 3.10 makes some appeal.
Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.10
Crystal Palace 7.00 v Man City 1.55; The Draw 4.60
If you're not one of the top six clubs in the Premier League table but still have high hopes of a good cup run then you really would have liked to have seen some of the FA Cup favourites drawn against each other, while you yourself get a kind home draw.
Unfortunately for the likes of Crystal Palace and Southampton, not only were the 'big six' kept apart when the numbers came out of the hat, they were actually drawn to play one of them.
It makes you wonder just how much ambition the Eagles will have to win this game. Even if they produced a big shock it's very likely that clubs like Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd, and Spurs will be in the last 16 once the weekend is over.
And with Palace now in the relegation zone following a run of desperate league form, and facing a massive game at Bournemouth on Tuesday night, I have to wonder just what team Sam Allardyce will field.
I'm taking the view that it will be a weak one, and if that's the case then backing Man City to win by at least two clear goals could be the bet here.
City were excellent going forward against Tottenham last week, and they lined up extremely strong and thrashed West Ham away from home in the third round, and with their midweek league game not coming until Wednesday night I'm expecting Pep Guardiola to name a similar strength side for round four, and that makes backing an easy away win a no-brainer.
Recommended Bet
Back Man City -1 to Win @ 2.50 (best bet)
Unfortunately for the likes of Crystal Palace and Southampton, not only were the 'big six' kept apart when the numbers came out of the hat, they were actually drawn to play one of them.
It makes you wonder just how much ambition the Eagles will have to win this game. Even if they produced a big shock it's very likely that clubs like Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd, and Spurs will be in the last 16 once the weekend is over.
And with Palace now in the relegation zone following a run of desperate league form, and facing a massive game at Bournemouth on Tuesday night, I have to wonder just what team Sam Allardyce will field.
I'm taking the view that it will be a weak one, and if that's the case then backing Man City to win by at least two clear goals could be the bet here.
City were excellent going forward against Tottenham last week, and they lined up extremely strong and thrashed West Ham away from home in the third round, and with their midweek league game not coming until Wednesday night I'm expecting Pep Guardiola to name a similar strength side for round four, and that makes backing an easy away win a no-brainer.
Recommended Bet
Back Man City -1 to Win @ 2.50 (best bet)
Lincoln 5.00 v Brighton 1.78; The Draw 4.00
Similar to the Burnley game, I'm extremely confident that we'll witness the 'class act' prevail when Championship title chasers Brighton travel to non-league Lincoln on Saturday.
When you get to this stage of the competition every game is like a cup final for a National League club, and with that comes a little more pressure.
Imps boss Danny Cowley would have been forgiven for fielding a much changed side last weekend when Lincoln faced Barrow but, barring one forced change, he stuck with the same starting line-up that beat Ipswich in the third round replay. His team were thrashed 3-0!
That worries me slightly as it suggests the Lincoln players had one eye on this tie against Brighton, and sometimes it can be difficult to 'switch' your best game back on.
And besides what I've said already I just can't for the life of me see Brighton being as poor as Ipswich were at Sincil Bank two weeks ago. The Tractor Boys were awful, yet it needed a stoppage-time goal for Lincoln to beat them.
I'll be surprised if Lincoln play as well as they did that night, and I'll be even more surprised if Brighton aren't 10 better than Ipswich were. That makes Chris Hughton's men a must-have wager.
Recommended Bet
Back Brighton to Win @ 1.78
When you get to this stage of the competition every game is like a cup final for a National League club, and with that comes a little more pressure.
Imps boss Danny Cowley would have been forgiven for fielding a much changed side last weekend when Lincoln faced Barrow but, barring one forced change, he stuck with the same starting line-up that beat Ipswich in the third round replay. His team were thrashed 3-0!
That worries me slightly as it suggests the Lincoln players had one eye on this tie against Brighton, and sometimes it can be difficult to 'switch' your best game back on.
And besides what I've said already I just can't for the life of me see Brighton being as poor as Ipswich were at Sincil Bank two weeks ago. The Tractor Boys were awful, yet it needed a stoppage-time goal for Lincoln to beat them.
I'll be surprised if Lincoln play as well as they did that night, and I'll be even more surprised if Brighton aren't 10 better than Ipswich were. That makes Chris Hughton's men a must-have wager.
Recommended Bet
Back Brighton to Win @ 1.78
Middlesbrough 1.33 v Accrington Stanley 11.50; The Draw 5.70
Middlesbrough are strong favourites to win this game and if you think they'll comfortably land the odds then a price of 2.34 about them winning without conceding surely must appeal.
Aitor Karanka's men are just about keeping their heads above water in the Premier League and undoubtedly the reason behind that is their strong defence. They have conceded fewer goals than any top flight club currently eighth or lower, and against Sheffield Wednesday in round three they were barely troubled at the back as they ran out comfortable 3-0 winners.
Accrington Stanley are fully two divisions below Wednesday, and they're bang out of form too, so no mater what line-up Karanka goes with the home side ought to be good enough to progress to the fifth round.
Stanley have won just one of their last 11 league games, but a strong pointer towards the recommended bet is that they lost seven of those matches and every one of them they were defeated without scoring a single goal.
Recommended Bet
Back Middlesbrough Win to Nil @ 2.34
Aitor Karanka's men are just about keeping their heads above water in the Premier League and undoubtedly the reason behind that is their strong defence. They have conceded fewer goals than any top flight club currently eighth or lower, and against Sheffield Wednesday in round three they were barely troubled at the back as they ran out comfortable 3-0 winners.
Accrington Stanley are fully two divisions below Wednesday, and they're bang out of form too, so no mater what line-up Karanka goes with the home side ought to be good enough to progress to the fifth round.
Stanley have won just one of their last 11 league games, but a strong pointer towards the recommended bet is that they lost seven of those matches and every one of them they were defeated without scoring a single goal.
Recommended Bet
Back Middlesbrough Win to Nil @ 2.34
Oxford 4.90 v Newcastle 1.78; The Draw 4.10
It was slightly disappointing that Newcastle couldn't win their third round tie against Birmingham at the first time of asking but I don't think they'll have many problems getting past Oxford on Saturday.
Rafa Benitez's men warmed up for this tie with back-to-back home wins, scoring seven goals in the process and conceding just one, but away from home they've been excellent all season.
The Magpies have already won 10 times away from home in all competitions this term, with some big scalps too like victories at Derby and Leeds, while the 6-0 win at QPR was arguably one of the best and most one-sided away performances you're ever likely to see.
Oxford sit comfortably in mid-table in League One so you can be sure they'll give this their best shot, and on their day they're a well organised side under Michael Appleton. They were excellent in winning 4-0 at Rochdale last week but at the Kassam Stadium they've failed to win any of their last three league games and scored just the solitary goal.
On current form and ability Newcastle are by some distance the better side, and even though Benitez could make a few changes to his regular starting XI I just don't envisage them not winning this.
Recommended Bet
Back Newcastle to Win @ 1.78
Rafa Benitez's men warmed up for this tie with back-to-back home wins, scoring seven goals in the process and conceding just one, but away from home they've been excellent all season.
The Magpies have already won 10 times away from home in all competitions this term, with some big scalps too like victories at Derby and Leeds, while the 6-0 win at QPR was arguably one of the best and most one-sided away performances you're ever likely to see.
Oxford sit comfortably in mid-table in League One so you can be sure they'll give this their best shot, and on their day they're a well organised side under Michael Appleton. They were excellent in winning 4-0 at Rochdale last week but at the Kassam Stadium they've failed to win any of their last three league games and scored just the solitary goal.
On current form and ability Newcastle are by some distance the better side, and even though Benitez could make a few changes to his regular starting XI I just don't envisage them not winning this.
Recommended Bet
Back Newcastle to Win @ 1.78
Rochdale 3.45 v Huddersfield 2.26; The Draw 3.60
I originally had this game down as a very tough one to call but the more I've looked at it the more I can make a decent case for backing the underdogs.
Rochdale were thrashed 4-0 on home soil last week but prior to that they'd won a remarkable 10 league games on the spin at Spotland, seven of them without conceding a goal. They defeated teams like Scunthorpe, Bolton, and Fleetwood in that spell - three of the current top four in League One - suggesting that in front of their own fans they are one of the best sides in the division.
If we can forgive last week's surprising defeat to Oxford then I'm sure there will be many people willing to take a chance on them at odds of 3.45 to beat Huddersfield.
The Terriers remain firmly in the promotion hunt in the Championship but I've been largely unconvinced by them - sometimes to my cost - for most of the season.
The angle I'm taking here is that David Wagner could easily field a weakened side given that finishing in the top six of the Championship is the club's biggest priority this season, and with their next two league games being at home to Brighton (1st) and Leeds (3rd), I'm sure he'll want to go into that huge double header with as many of his regular starters fresh and available as possible.
Recommended Bet
Back Rochdale to Win @ 3.45
Rochdale were thrashed 4-0 on home soil last week but prior to that they'd won a remarkable 10 league games on the spin at Spotland, seven of them without conceding a goal. They defeated teams like Scunthorpe, Bolton, and Fleetwood in that spell - three of the current top four in League One - suggesting that in front of their own fans they are one of the best sides in the division.
If we can forgive last week's surprising defeat to Oxford then I'm sure there will be many people willing to take a chance on them at odds of 3.45 to beat Huddersfield.
The Terriers remain firmly in the promotion hunt in the Championship but I've been largely unconvinced by them - sometimes to my cost - for most of the season.
The angle I'm taking here is that David Wagner could easily field a weakened side given that finishing in the top six of the Championship is the club's biggest priority this season, and with their next two league games being at home to Brighton (1st) and Leeds (3rd), I'm sure he'll want to go into that huge double header with as many of his regular starters fresh and available as possible.
Recommended Bet
Back Rochdale to Win @ 3.45
Tottenham 1.18 v Wycombe 21.00; The Draw 9.60
It's not very original but I rate Spurs the most reliable long odds-on shot of the weekend, and I'll be backing them to win very easily.
While I wouldn't want to be on Liverpool at 1.33, or Manchester United at 1.19 against Championship rivals, or can't make a case for Chelsea thrashing Brentford at odds of just 1.20, when it comes to Tottenham I just can't pick any holes in what should be a convincing home win.
I'm sure Mauricio Pochettino will rest a few of his star names but any line-up similar to the one that brushed Aston Villa aside in the third round should be good enough to score three or four against League Two Wycombe.
Wanderers are actually in excellent league form, and are now on a run of 12 unbeaten games, but I feel that might be their undoing.
They'll be full of confidence going to White Hart Lane and while you have to admire them for giving it a go if that's what they end up doing, I just sense that an early goal for the hosts will open up the floodgates.
Recommended Bet
Back Tottenham -2 to Win @ 2.20
While I wouldn't want to be on Liverpool at 1.33, or Manchester United at 1.19 against Championship rivals, or can't make a case for Chelsea thrashing Brentford at odds of just 1.20, when it comes to Tottenham I just can't pick any holes in what should be a convincing home win.
I'm sure Mauricio Pochettino will rest a few of his star names but any line-up similar to the one that brushed Aston Villa aside in the third round should be good enough to score three or four against League Two Wycombe.
Wanderers are actually in excellent league form, and are now on a run of 12 unbeaten games, but I feel that might be their undoing.
They'll be full of confidence going to White Hart Lane and while you have to admire them for giving it a go if that's what they end up doing, I just sense that an early goal for the hosts will open up the floodgates.
Recommended Bet
Back Tottenham -2 to Win @ 2.20
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