Mike Holden on the EFL: Feisty Lions can topple leaders

Millwall v Wolves
Championship, Boxing Day 13:00

Wolves stretched their lead at the top of the Championship to seven points with a narrow win over Ipswich on Saturday and you'd have to search far and wide to find somebody who doesn't think they will be crowned champions at the end of the season. The Old Gold have now taken maximum points in 11 of their last 13 matches.

However, recent games have been played in the realm of fine margins and positive results have largely been a product of Nuno's tactical nous rather than the free-flowing brilliance of their best players. In the last four matches, they've only scored three goals but four successive clean sheets have been rewarded with 10 points from a possible 12.

The likes of Ruben Neves (20), Diogo Jota (21), Ivan Cavaleiro (24) and Leo Bonatini (23) are fairly new to the rigours of incessant competitive first-team football, let alone the gruelling English lower league schedule, so it would be dangerous over the next seven days to expect a continuation of the standards set up to this point.

And a game against a rugged, high-tempo Millwall side might be just the sort of unforgiving physical challenge where fate conspires against them. Neil Harris' men have won five out of six home games against teams above them in the table and kept clean sheets on the road at Cardiff, Bristol City, Aston Villa and Preston. They don't pander to reputations.

The Lions were well beaten at Derby (0-3) last time out, where they uncharacteristically shipped three goals in the space of five first-half minutes. But that game was effectively done and dusted inside half an hour, which might work in their favour here, if they played the remaining hour without investing too much either physically or emotionally.

Recommended Bets
1pt Millwall to win at 4.10
1pt Millwall 1-0 correct score at 11.00

Bristol City v Reading
Championship, Boxing Day 15:00

Lee Johnson was gushing with pride at the efforts of his Bristol City players as they came from behind to snatch a point at QPR on Saturday, laughing in the face of suggestions they would be running on empty after their Carabao Cup heroics against Manchester United. But fatigue has surely got to catch up with them at some point and now Reading look best placed to take advantage.

Three blank midweeks since the end of November might have helped the Robins go to the well once more at Loftus Road - and we should acknowledge that Rangers have been in dreadful form since the beginning of November - but this will now be City's third game in six days and it might not have their full attention with promotion six-pointers against Wolves and Aston Villa to follow.

Reading are no great shakes but they do have a way grinding down the more expressive teams in the division and they also boast a fine record at Ashton Gate, where they have triumphed on each of their last three visits. It's a curious hoodoo that includes twice coming from 2-0 down after 70 minutes to win 3-2 with the decisive goal struck in stoppage time.

Jaap Stam's men suffered a shock reverse at home to minnows Burton in their last outing, when they created very little of note from 76 per cent possession and were punished by a freak Tom Naylor goal. So they should be eager to atone for that embarrassment in a game where the shoe is on the other foot and they can sit back and put the onus on the hosts.

It's a strategy that has served them well enough in previous games against top-six opposition. Aston Villa, Leeds and Derby have all been turned over by the Berkshire club, while Cardiff needed two late goals to snatch a point at Madejski a fortnight ago.

Recommended Bets
1pt Reading to beat Bristol City at 4.40
1pt Draw/Reading Half Time/Full Time at [9.50]

Swindon v Luton
League Two, Boxing Day 15:00

League Two has probably never known a team as dominant as Luton before, yet they have underwhelmed at various points when up against fellow promotions hopefuls - and never more so than in the reverse fixture at Kenilworth Road last September when Swindon ran out worthy 3-0 winners. Few who witnessed that game would have the Robins as such rank outsiders on home soil.

David Flitcroft's men do have an enigmatic streak; they can be brilliant one week and abject the next. But with so much being made of their dismal home record - just three wins in 11 matches - a visit from the runaway leaders with the County Ground faithful in festive spirit might bring a change of dynamic that suits them.

At the very least, they will be granted licence by the locals to approach this like an away fixture and play on the counter. It's a strategy that not only worked a treat against the Hatters but also yielded comfortable wins at Mansfield (3-1), Port Vale (3-0) and in their last outing at Crewe (3-0), all of which contributes to the best away record in the division.

Luton cruised to their ninth win in 11 matches against Grimsby at the weekend and have tasted defeat only once in 22 matches but such is the ease with which they are dispatching the lesser opposition, they can be caught off-guard when suddenly required to raise their game and the Wiltshire club are worth chancing at the price.

Recommended Bets
1pt Swindon to beat Luton at 3.90