Saturday Championship 3pm Kick-Offs: Pulis to start new venture with a win

Ipswich 3.45 v Derby 2.34; The Draw 3.40

Just after putting Derby up as my best bet on Boxing Day it emerged that boss Gary Rowettintended to make changes to his side for the trip to Hull. They still performed well, but couldn't quite manage the victory and had to settle for a goalless draw.

But there are always positives from taking a draw away from home, and for the Rams it means they are now five games without defeat, but more importantly they have recorded clean sheets in every one of those last five matches.

Rowett is delighted with the way his side are defending, saying after the Hull game, "A fifth clean sheet in a row is excellent so I'm really pleased with that. We saw players putting their bodies on the line and that's what I'm after."

He's spot on. At this level, when literally any team can beat anyone on their day, just one goal will always win you the game if you're keeping clean sheets. It's a rock solid platform to build from.

Ironically, the last defeat Derby suffered was at the hands of Saturday's opponents Ipswich, a game in which the Rams dominated but the Tractor Boys took all three points by... yes, keeping a clean sheet and scoring the solitary goal.

That was a very surprising home defeat for Rowett's men and I can see them getting revenge in this fixture. Derby are in excellent form currently whereas Mick McCarthy's men have won just one of their last four, failing to score in three of those matches. This could be another low-scoring affair but I expect the Rams to pinch it.

Recommended Bet
Back Derby to Win @ 2.34

Middlesbrough 1.96 v Aston Villa 4.70; The Draw 3.50

It's been a topsy-turvy season for both Middlesbrough and Aston Villa so far, but it's the hosts who go into this game in much better shape than their high-profile visitors.

Villa were the early pre-season favourites to win the Championship title, until Boro spent big and replaced them at the top of the market, so from that perspective, for both clubs to be outside of the play-offs currently is a big disappointment.

But for Middlesbrough it's a bit like starting all over again. They sacked Garry Monk seven days ago, surprisingly after a very good 2-1 away win at Sheffield Wednesday, and they moved quickly to bring in the experienced, regimental-type manager Tony Pulis.

Pulis looks to be a great fit as Boro's undoubted strength in recent seasons has been their ability to defend, and keep clean sheets. If the former Stoke and West Brom boss can get them defending the way we know they can, then that will relieve the attacking players of a lot of pressure.

Villa have been down near the bottom of the table, then up in the play-offs, and now they're going backwards again following a run of five games without a win, including back-to-back away defeats to promotion rivals Leeds and Brentford.

Steve Bruce has been badly hit by key injuries to his squad and is already without defender Chris Samba (hamstring), midfielder Henri Lansbury (hamstring) and strikers Gabby Agbonlahor (ankle) and Jonathan Kodjia (ankle) ahead of this game, while John Terry and Albert Adomah are doubts.

Middlesbrough seem to have more momentum right now, and with the 'new manager' bounce they ought to take advantage of Villa's injury crisis and record a third successive home win.

Recommended Bet
Back Middlesbrough to Win @ 1.96 (best bet)

Barnsley 2.80 v Reading 2.82; The Draw 3.40

Both these sides look to be in trouble at the wrong end of the table, but at the current odds I have to side with Barnsley given they have home advantage.

Reading have lost three on the spin now, including a surprise home defeat to relegation favourites Burton, while they've also lost at Ipswich and failed to beat struggling Bolton in recent away games. They have injuries to a number of midfielders going into this game and the might just swing it in the home side's favour.

Barnsley aren't in great form admittedly, but they've had two very respectable 0-0 draws in recent games, both against bang-in-form teams sitting in the top half of the table, Brentford and Reading. And as I've already said, keeping clean sheets at this level will always give you an excellent opportunity to win a game.

Paul Heckingbottom has claimed that his side feel like they are turning the corner, and while you expect a manager to say bullish things when on a bad run, those recent results and excellent defensive performances appear to back up his claims.

It should be a close game, the odds suggest that, but taking a chance on Barnsley getting back to winning ways looks one worth taking.

Recommended Bet
Back Barnsley to Win @ 2.80