Swansea v Arsenal: Improving hosts can make life difficult for Wenger

Swansea v Arsenal
Tuesday, 19:45

Swans revived by arrival of Carvalhal

Swansea again appeared doomed to relegation midway through the season but there are signs the Premier League club could pull off yet another great escape. Paul Clement paid the price for their struggles by being dismissed in December and his replacement, Carlos Carvalhal, was something of a surprise choice. He had only recently been sacked by Sheffield Wednesday but the Portuguese boss has had a strong impact during his first month in charge.

His first match saw the Swans pull off a late comeback to snatch a 2-1 win at Watford but his finest hour came last week after their shock 1-0 home win over Liverpool. It was a superb defensive performance by Swansea and took the bottom side within three points of safety. Carvalhal's side also remain in the FA Cup after drawing 1-1 at League Two Notts County in the fourth round on Saturday.

Arsenal's away form still letting them down

Arsenal have had their problems again this season but travel to Wales off the back of their 2-1 win at home to Chelsea which booked their place at Wembley in the Carabao Cup finalagainst Manchester City. Perhaps it says something about the way in which the Gunners' standards have slipped that their highlight appears to be challenging for League Cup glory but it is still the chance for a fourth trophy in five years for Arsene Wenger's side.

After missing out on Champions League football last season, it looks likely Arsenal will fall short again of a top-four finish. Their problem has been a very poor away record with the side losing five of their 12 league matches. A total of 13 points on the road is not going to get the job done and has left them five points off fourth-placed Liverpool despite an excellent record at home.

Gunners look too short to trust

Arsenal are obvious favourites but appear to be too short a price at just 1.53 to claim the three points. Wenger's side have had extra time to prepare for the match, after their early exit from the FA Cup, but their away record suggests they are a liability at these odds. The Gunners have won just three of their 12 away league games this season which makes them difficult to trust.

Swansea are 7.60 outsiders but the hosts certainly should not be ruled out. The Swans upset the odds last week after their win at home to Liverpool and this performance has set the blueprint for a way to topple Arsenal. Two of their five league victories have come under their new boss, despite only taking over last month, so a home win is by no means out of the question.

The draw is priced up at 4.60 and is another option which deserves consideration. Three of Swansea's last five games in all competitions have ended in a stalemate and taking a point against Arsenal would be a positive result. Three of Arsenal's last six league matches have been draws including being held at lowly West Brom so this outcome offers some appeal.

Swansea generously priced to avoid defeat

Swansea have lost only one of their seven matches under new boss Carvalhal and there is no doubt the side have improved since his arrival. Against an Arsenal side which has failed to win nine of their 12 away league matches, the hosts look worth supporting. Swansea are a generous price at 2.86 to avoid defeat in the double chance market and provide another boost to their hopes of avoiding relegation.

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