Everton v Leicester City: Puel to release the handbrake against fragile hosts

Everton v Leicester City
Wednesday 31 January, 19:45

Allardyce realising the scale of the task at Goodison

The problem with a "new manager bounce" is that the ball has to then drop eventually, and that's what's happening to Sam Allardyce's Everton. The Toffees squad is proving harder to organise and drill than perhaps Allardyce anticipated, and he has publicly castigated his players on several occasions.

Much has been made of the need to replace Romelu Lukaku, whose loss to Manchester United in the summer left a gaping hole in the EFC attack. While this was a legitimate concern which may have been partially addressed by the arrival of Turkish striker Cenk Tosun, the team's abject defending has been an issue for months.

The figures are alarming from an Everton fan's perspective. They have leaked 39 goals in 24 games in the league, and in all competitions, they have conceded in least two goals in 18 of their last 31 games in all competitions, including four of the last five. They have managed just two clean sheets in the last eight outings.

I have no fears that Everton will be relegated, but Allardyce has a lot of work to do to turn this group of players into a competitive unit that can be trusted to put together a run of good performances. In the Premier League, they have collected just three points from the last six games.

Injuries have taken their toll, and James McCarthy is out until next season after breaking his leg. Seamus Coleman isn't quite ready for his return after a similar injury, while Leighton Baines and Ramiro Funes Mori are still sidelined.

Puel silencing his doubters in style

Leicester City's decision to bring in Claude Puel to replace Craig Shakespeare as manager is having a rather more consistent effect than many observers expected. The Foxes are still in the FA Cup, and they are in the mix for a Europa League spot.

It's easily forgotten that Puel delivered a top-8 finish and a cup final in his only season at Southampton, but concerns over a pragmatic style of play, and a breakdown in communication with many of his players cost him the chance to continue that progress.

Leicester have kept five clean sheets in their last six games (although two of those were against Fleetwood in the cup), and they've whacked in nine goals in their last six PL matches. However, the issue Puel still has to solve is how to improve the away form. His team have taken just a point from their last three road matches in the league, and they've only won three away games in the top flight across the whole campaign.

Leicester are worthy favourites

Given Everton's slump, Leicester's price of 2.70 for the win seems attractive. They are playing with confidence and cohesion, and they are facing a side that has neither at present.

If you want a bit of a safety net, you could back Leicester Draw No Bet at 1.85.

Goals could be the route to profit

Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 2.24 here, and my eyes lit up when I saw that. I know that Leicester are keeping a lot of clean sheets at the moment, but I suspect they'll play on the front foot here and look to use their pace to expose Everton's defensive fragility.

At the other end, Opta tell us Everton have only failed to score in two of their last 15 meetings with Leicester.

Seven of Leicester's last ten away games in all competitions have seen an overs bet land, and that's what I'm going for.

Vardy to be the vanguard

The Opta stats show that Jamie Vardy has scored three goals in his last three Premier League games against Everton. The England striker has scored three goals in his last five league games, and I'll back him to score here at 2.70 on the Sportsbook.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.24

Back Jamie Vardy to score at 2.70