Rep of Ireland v Wales: Back a full-blooded derby occasion as the Welsh look to play catch-up

Republic of Ireland v Wales
Friday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

Match Odds
Republic of Ireland 2.58 Wales 3.45 Draw 3.10

The long range build-up to Friday's World Cup qualifier between the Republic of Ireland and Wales centred on the possible availability of Gareth Bale.

When Wales' main man damaged his ankle in November, negative predictions in Spain claimed that he could be on the sidelines until April. Everything looked to be weighted in Ireland's favour.

They already lead Group D after taking a return of ten points from their opening four games to sit two points clear at the top ahead of Serbia. Wales, the top seeds, are four points off the pace in the third after three successive draws including a costly dropping of points at home to Georgia.

Therefore, the story in Ireland was that the prospect of facing Wales without the Real Madrid star offered Martin O'Neill's charges an opportunity to take a giant step towards Russia and knock their Celtic neighbours out of the picture.

The tone is different this week. Bale is present and correct after recovering in time for the end of February. By contrast, Ireland have been hit by an injury crisis which means that five members of the side that scored a famous win in Austria in November are out of this game.

Robbie Brady is suspended for a daft yellow picked up in that fixture, but first choice centre-halves Ciaran Clark and Shane Duffy and midfielders Harry Arter and Wes Hoolahan have all fallen by the wayside in recent weeks. Daryl Murphy also misses out through injury, while James McCarthy is a major doubt despite a return to training on Wednesday.

So the picture suddenly looks rosier for Wales, yet they know that they have to start winning games to get back in the qualification race. Ireland have home advantage and a position of strength; both Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane have said they will adopt a positive attitude and seek to win the game but they have the insurance of knowing that it's not actually a 'must-win' encounter.

They might have to absorb some pressure although the familiarity between the sides should make this a full-blooded derby style affair rather than a typically cagey international affair.

O'Neill does have James McClean and Shane Long fully fit which should offer a combative edge and the ability to break at pace when under pressure. The aggression of Jonathan Walters will also be a major asset.

His big decision is whether to include Preston's in-form Aiden McGeady as an additional creative option or else go with the slightly more defensively-minded David Meyler as support for Glenn Whelan and Jeff Hendrick. Stopping Bale's movement will be a big part of the tactical plan. Keane has urged players to 'tackle him' and 'hit him...fairly'. But Wales are more than a one-man team although they are often portrayed that way.

Aaron Ramsey was a big part of their Euro 2016 adventure and Ireland would love to have a player of his quality. Chris Coleman's preferred 3-5-2 formation gives them strength in the middle and the hosts will have to work hard to ensure they are not overrun. But hard work, as cliched as it might sound, has underpinned their fine start to the campaign. Shorn of some guile, O'Neill's men will have to knuckle down. They may not say it publicly but a draw would be an acceptable result - and a likely one. It's worth a punt at 3.10.

Both Teams To Score - Yes 2.18

The history of Irish football is littered with score draws. Mostly 1-1 draws. The level stakes return on that fixture for competitive fixtures with qualification rivals must be fairly reasonable. When Richard Keogh and John O'Shea played in the centre of defence in Serbia in September, the full-time result was 2-2.

Granted, that was more about the collective display than their individual errors but it's quite difficult to see this Irish team keeping a clean sheet on a wide pitch against a team that should be capable of stretching them. By the same token, a Welsh side whose last three matches have finished 2-2, 1-1 and 1-1 have weaknesses. The 2.18 about Both Teams to Score appeals.

Wales/Draw Half Time/Full Time 18.50

For small stakes, this could be a play. Wales are playing catch-up and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if they burst out of the blocks smartly even though the atmosphere at the Aviva Stadium should be intense. They have given away half-time leads in the three draws that have left them with ground to make-up so, in that context, the 18.50 about a repeat appeals.