Thursday 7:20pm
at MCG, Melbourne
The new Tigers recruits should prove too much to handle for the young Blues.
Form
The Blues finished 2016 losing 13 of their last 15 matches. They averaged a dismal 71 points a game, ranking them 2nd last behind only the depleted Bombers. Any finish above the bottom two would be considered a win for the Blues.
The Tigers will be looking for consistency in 2017 after an up and down last few seasons. The Wolf can see some improvement from 2016 after adding recruits Prestia, Caddy and Nankervis to their midfield. This should allow Dustin Martin to spend more time up forward and he should be aiming to kick 35 plus goals this season. Anything less than a win here will not go down well at Tigerland.
Stats That Matter
– Richmond has won 4 of the last 5 against Carlton.
– Richmond has won 3 of the last 4 season openers against Carlton.
– Richmond covered only 27% of matches ATS in 2016, ranked last in the competition.
– In matches involving Carlton, 59% of them finished under the game total in 2016, 4% above the average.
– Despite winning just 7 of their 22 fixtures, the Blues finished with a +17% POT to place them third in the competition.
– The Tigers covered only 6 of their 22 matches in 2016 and finished with a -35% POT which was the fourth worst in the league.
– Richmond has won 3 of the last 4 season openers against Carlton.
– Richmond covered only 27% of matches ATS in 2016, ranked last in the competition.
– In matches involving Carlton, 59% of them finished under the game total in 2016, 4% above the average.
– Despite winning just 7 of their 22 fixtures, the Blues finished with a +17% POT to place them third in the competition.
– The Tigers covered only 6 of their 22 matches in 2016 and finished with a -35% POT which was the fourth worst in the league.
Betting Data
2016 Line: Carlton 12-10, Richmond 6-16
2016 Over/Under: Carlton 9-13, Richmond 10-12
2016 Over/Under: Carlton 9-13, Richmond 10-12
What To Expect
Although Richmond finished above the Blues on the ladder last season, many experts including the Wolf considered Carlton’s year better to be better than Richmond’s. Coach Brendon Bolton is again looking to develop his young players as the Blues look towards building for a flag in 5 years. Carlton have made no improvements to their lacklustre forward line and with Richmond’s Alex Rance playing, the Wolf can’t see the Blues kicking a winning score. The new recruits at Punt Road in Caddy and Prestia will be looking to make an immediate impact against a weaker opposition. With the Tigers having beaten the Blues in 4 of their last 5 and having a stronger team on paper, the Wolf can see the Tigers getting the 4 points in this one.
How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond By 18
Recommended Bet
Richmond 1-39 ($2.10)
Player Markets
In the last two meetings between Carlton and Richmond, only Kade Simpson and Bryce Gibbs have cracked the 30-disposal mark. Dustin Martin has opened up as the $4 favourite for Most Disposals Group A, and rightly so as he averages 4 more disposals than any other player in in this group. His recent form against Carlton is shaky though, averaging only 22.5 disposals as he usually cops a tag from Ed Curnow. Bryce Gibbs had 30 disposals last time they met and with the Tigers running an unaccountable midfield of Martin, Prestia and Cotchin, the Wolf likes Gibbs at $6.
Recommended Bet
Bryce Gibbs Most Disposals Group A ($6.00)
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