Saturday 7:25pm
at MCG, Melbourne
The banned Bombers make an emotional return to the AFL stage
Form
Those expecting the Bombers to return to the Finals after the supplement saga of 2016 are in dreamland. While it would be a great story if the Bombers were to bounce back and play finals, realistically the returning players are 12 months out of touch from the modern game.
The Hawks will have an unfamiliar look in 2017 after the departures of champions Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell. As usual, Clarko will have a new game plan up his sleeve and the Hawks will play a different brand of football in 2017.
Stats That Matter
– Hawthorn have won 4 of the last 5 matches against Essendon.
– The Hawks will be without Lewis, Mitchell and Hodge for the first time since Round 10, 2002.
– Hawthorn covered just 33% of matches ATS in 2016, ranking them 2nd last.
– Essendon went at -30% POT in 2016, surprisingly this wasn’t as bad as their -33% POT in 2015.
– Essendon was an unders team in 2014 and 2015, with 63% of games in this period going under.
– In 2016, Essendon went overs in 59% of matches, ranking them equal 7th in the competition.
– The Hawks will be without Lewis, Mitchell and Hodge for the first time since Round 10, 2002.
– Hawthorn covered just 33% of matches ATS in 2016, ranking them 2nd last.
– Essendon went at -30% POT in 2016, surprisingly this wasn’t as bad as their -33% POT in 2015.
– Essendon was an unders team in 2014 and 2015, with 63% of games in this period going under.
– In 2016, Essendon went overs in 59% of matches, ranking them equal 7th in the competition.
Betting Data
2016 Line: Essendon 10-12, Hawthorn 8-16
2016 Over/Under: Essendon 13-9, Hawthorn 11-13
2016 Over/Under: Essendon 13-9, Hawthorn 11-13
What To Expect
Emotions will be running high when the returning Bombers lead by new skipper Dyson Heppell take to the MCG on Saturday night. We learnt throughout the JLT Series that the Bombers get out of the blocks well; they lead both Collingwood and Geelong at half time. However there lack of match fitness showed through and in both matches they were eventually over run. The Hawks will look completely unfamiliar with no Lewis, Mitchell or Hodge for the first time since 2002. They will rely heavily on new recruits Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell, while also welcoming back new skipper Jarryd Roughead from a health scare. The Wolf can see the Bombers get on top early, though the Hawks will run over them in the end.
How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn By 24
Recommended Bet
Hawthorn -11.5 ($1.91)
Player Markets
There are a lot of unknowns heading into this one with the returning Bombers players and a Hawthorn side full of new faces. Here’s what we do know, Brent Stanton averages 25 disposals and 103.8 fantasy points per game in his last 4 against the Hawks. With a new role likely to be across the half back line, Stanton can really rack up the uncontested marks and kicks to punch out another big fantasy score. The Wolf can see Stanton having 20+ kicks here and likes his price of $3.50 in Most Kicks Group A.
Recommended Bet
Brent Stanton Most Kicks Group A ($3.50)
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