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St George Illawarra Dragons v New Zealand Warriors

Sunday, March 26, 6:30pm (AEDT), UOW Jubilee Oval, Sydney




The Dragons knocked off the defending premiers in a tough affair last week and will need to play with the same intensity against the hot-and-cold Warriors, who have lost their last two matches since their opening round win over the Knights. They’ll be boosted by the return of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and the inclusion of Kieran Foran on an extended bench.
History
The Dragons have won 19 of their 24 matches all-time against the Warriors and had won 11 straight before a loss at Mt Smart last year. New Zealand have never won two straight against the Dragons.
Form
The Dragons have been wildly inconsistent to open the season but have pulled off two shock wins, hammering Penrith at home in Round 1 and then knocking off defending premiers Cronulla in the southern Sydney derby in Round 3. Those performances were sandwiched with a shocking home loss to the Eels where they were never in the match. The Warriors have been terribly lacklustre so far this season despite their glut of talent through the spine. After a 26-22 win over Newcastle, the Warriors have been outclassed by both Melbourne and Canterbury in New Zealand. New Zealand refused to move the ball against the Bulldogs and it proved costly after they conceded 22-plus for the third straight week.
Key Matchup
Cameron McInnes v Issac Luke. McInnes has been a revelation since joining the Red V and is arguably one of the form hookers of the competition. The same can’t be said for Luke, who is an outstanding player on his day, but is struggling and no earning a cent of his big contract. This clash is expected to be a forward battle and it will be the responsibility of the respective hookers to give their sides a roll on.
Stats That Matter
The Dragons are 2-1 ATS with a 2-1 over number while the Warriors have failed to cover a single game with a 2-1 under record. St George Illawarra have won 19 of their 24 matches all-time against New Zealand and had won 11 straight before a loss at Mt Smart last year against an undermanned Warriors team. New Zealand have never won two straight against the Dragons. New Zealand have covered just 2 of their last 11 night matches away from Mt Smart. The Dragons have covered 9 of their last 13 at Kogarah while they are 5-2 ATS at the ground off a win. The Warriors have covered just 15 of their last 36 in Australia.
Final Thoughts
Despite the Dragons strong record over the Warriors, this looms as a massive danger game for Paul McGregor’s men. The Warriors are impossible to trust especially when they travel to Australia, making the Dragons the safer option, especially on the back of their strong win over the Sharks last week. The Dragons also have an underrated pack that is performing above expectations, led by Jack de Belin and Paul Vaughan.
How It’s Shaping Up
St George Illawarra by 4
Best BetSt George Illawarra ($1.90)

Other Recommended Bets
St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3.10)

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