at MCG, Melbourne
Will there be a premiership hangover for the young Dogs?
Form
The Pies have gone all out on experienced recruits such as Mayne, Wells and Greenwood and the reward will not be worth the risk. Whilst their midfield will win plenty of the ball, they all lack defensive pressure and the Dogs are capable of pouncing on this.
The Dogs will be out to prove their Premiership win was no fluke. Under the astute tutelage of coach Luke Beveridge, the young Dogs face the task of being the hunted instead of the hunter in 2017.
Stats That Matter
– Western Bulldogs have won 4 of the last 5 against Collingwood.
– Western Bulldogs have won 7 of their last 8 against all opponents
– The Bulldogs are favourites to win for the first time since Round 23, 2016 against Fremantle – a match in which they lost.
– Western Bulldogs matches went under the game total 71% of the time in 2016, ranked #1 in the competition.
– The Bulldogs covered 58% of matches ATS in 2016, ranking 3rd in the league.
– The Pies won just 9 matches in 2016, though finished the year with a +14% POT.
– Western Bulldogs had the highest POT of any team in the competition, finishing with +26%.
– Western Bulldogs have won 7 of their last 8 against all opponents
– The Bulldogs are favourites to win for the first time since Round 23, 2016 against Fremantle – a match in which they lost.
– Western Bulldogs matches went under the game total 71% of the time in 2016, ranked #1 in the competition.
– The Bulldogs covered 58% of matches ATS in 2016, ranking 3rd in the league.
– The Pies won just 9 matches in 2016, though finished the year with a +14% POT.
– Western Bulldogs had the highest POT of any team in the competition, finishing with +26%.
Betting Data
2016 Line: Collingwood 12-10, Western Bulldogs 14-10
2016 Over/Under: Collingwood 9-13, Western Bulldogs 7-17
2016 Over/Under: Collingwood 9-13, Western Bulldogs 7-17
What To Expect
The Dogs go into this match as favourites, a title which doesn’t sit comfortably with them after going on their unbelievable finals run as underdogs in all 4 matches played. It will be an emotional return to the MCG for the Bulldogs as it will be there first game back at the venue where they defeated the Swans in last seasons grand final. The Pies have had an extra month of preparation for this one after failing to make the finals last season. We saw during the JLT Series they want to move the ball quicker than they did last year and this lends itself to games being higher scoring. With the Bulldogs being arguably the most talented team in the competition, the Wolf can see them having too much class for the Pies here.
How It’s Shaping Up
Western Bulldogs By 22
Recommended Bet
Western Bulldogs -14.5 ($1.91)
Player Markets
The Wolf expects this game to be a disposal feast with both midfields backing themselves in to beat the other. Luke Dahlhaus is coming off 31 and 37 disposals in his last two against the Pies and looks set to spend the majority of time in the midfield in 2017. Adam Treloar took his game from strength to strength in 2016 and is coming off a 35 disposal, 128-fantasy point effort in his last outing against the Dogs. With this in mind, the Wolf loves Treloar to win his fantasy group at $2.50.
Recommended Bet
Adam Treloar Most AFL Fantasy Points Group A ($2.50)
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