AFL Preview Round 1: Demons v Cats

Melbourne v Geelong
Sunday 3:20pm AEDT at MCG

We are in for an absolute treat on Sunday afternoon with a clash between expected Top 8 sides, the Demons and Cats. The Cats have a few injury concerns heading into the season proper, and will miss Brownlow medallist, Patrick Dangerfield, for what will be a mouthwatering midfield match-up. The Demons recruited Jake Lever to help shore up what was, at times, a leaky defence- and the former Adelaide players intercept combination with Michael Hibberd could have a huge say in the result.

FormDespite the rumblings of player discontent in the preseason, the Demons got off to a strong start in 2018 with 53 point and 26 point wins respectively in the JLT series. They scored over 110 points on both occasions, and looked to have increased the number of quality scoring options in the front half, while the drive from half-back looked slick and composed. Whether they can stick to their guns and avoid getting too cute and arrogant coming out of their defensive 50 (like they did on numerous occasions in 2017) remains to be seen.

It may only have been a JLT game, but Geelong’s 56 point loss to the Suns had alarm bells ringing, namely for the fact that they looked very vulnerable without the ‘Dangerwoodlett’ trio. Perhaps even more worrying was the injury concerns that arose from their more competitive 4 point loss to the Bombers- and they will start Round 1 without Dangerfield, Scott Selwood, Henderson and Cockatoo.

Stats That Matter– Geelong have won 12 of their last 13 meetings
– 4 of Melbourne’s last 5 games at the ‘G have gone Unders
– Joel Selwood had 37 disposals and 137 Fantasy points last year against the Dees
– On the Over-Unders in 2017, Melbourne went 8-14
– In Round 1, 2017- Overs went 9-0
– Tom Hawkins has kicked 13 in his last 3 games against Melbourne
– Melbourne were 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games of 2017
– Melbourne is unbeaten in its last three opening round matches while Geelong has won four of its last five round one games.

Betting Data2018 Line: 0-0
2018 Over-Under: 0-0
2017 Line: Melbourne- 8-14; Geelong- 12-13
2017 Over-Under: Melbourne- 10-12; Geelong- 11-14

What To ExpectThe Wolf is expecting a very tight encounter on Sunday, with both sides noted early season performers. The loss of Dangerfield is a big one for the Cats, although that is somewhat offset by the absence of Melbourne co-captain Jack Viney due to a foot injury. In a very hard game to pick, Wolfie is leaning towards the Demons ever so slightly, who look to have had a far more smooth preseason than their Cats counterparts.

How It’s Shaping UpMelbourne by 13

Recommended Bets

Best: Melbourne WIN ($1.80)
Value: Melbourne +0.5 & OVER 178.5 Total Points ($3.90)
Player Prop: Michael Hibberd 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.75)
First Goalscorer: Jesse Hogan ($TBA)