The Punter's In-Play Blog: Reavie to beat Bradley the best bet on day three

Today's the day that all the groups are decided at the WGC - Dell Technologies Match Play so read our man's thoughts on all the action here...

We've reached day three of the WGC - Dell Technologies Match Play and it now feels like a knockout event. Some players already know they're on their way home tomorrow but nobody yet knows they're through for sure. If you're interested in all the different scenarios for each of the 16 groups, this page on the PGA Tour website details it all perfectly.

My sole pick, Rory McIlroy, has his fate back in his own hands again after he beat Jhonattan Vegas yesterday and if he beats Brian Harman today, he'll either progress automatically or he'll meet Peter Uihlein in a playoff, should the American win his match today against Vegas. Rory still has plenty to do and I'm certainly not counting chickens just yet but I'm glad I topped up on him and I'm glad I had a small wager on him to win his group. He's used his Get Out of Jail Free card and he's given himself a chance.

Buoyed by yesterday's two winning bets, it made sense to have another look at today's matches but it's not as easy today with several dead rubbers and a number of ties that absolutely determine who progresses. Patrick Reed v Jordan Spieth is the match-up that will grab all the headlines but the tie I'd want to go and see is Tony Finau v Alex Noren. Those two are both playing some great golf and I can see whoever wins that match giving either Reed or Spieth a real battle in the round of 16.

They're two classic ties today and they'll be fascinating to watch but they're both matches that need filing under too difficult to predict. I do have four ties that interest me from a betting perspective though...

With Gary Woodland and Pat Perez already out of the reckoning in group 15, Si Woo Kim is very tempting at around 6/4 to beat Webb Simpson in the group decider. The American's event record can only be described as ordinary and I'd have had the two more closely matched in the betting. Kim thrashed Woodland 5&3 yesterday and he'll be no pushover today.

Group 7 is similarly poised with Sergio Garcia and Xander Schauffele meeting to decide who progresses and again, the outsider of the two, Schauffele, is being slightly underestimated in the market. Garcia was arguably a little fortunate to come from behind to win his two opening ties, with his opponents both failing to nail home the advantage, and a sloppy start won't get such a generous response today. Anything around the 6/4 mark for the American looks fair.

After a sound 5&3 thrashing by Bubba Watson on Wednesday, and a hard-fought 2&1 victory against Julian Suri yesterday, Branden Grace can still progress via a three-man playoff, provided he can beat the pointless Marc Leishman and Suri beats Bubba. That's not impossible given how well Suri played yesterday but I'm not going to worry about all that. I am however going to back Grace to beat Leishman at odds-against. I'm always wary of taking on players with nothing to play for as they can often produce the good when there's nothing to play for but Grace playing well yesterday and I'd have him shorter than evens to get the better of Leishman.

I'm still deciding whether to play Kim, I've had small bet matched on Schauffele at 2.80, and I'm going to back Grace at odds-against but the one I like best today is Chez Reavie to beat Keegan Bradley at odds-against. One or two firms go as big as 11/10 and that looks wrong to me. I opposed Bradley yesterday because of his dire match play record and I'm more than happy to do so today now that he has nothing to play for. Reavie needs Jon Rahm to beat Kiradech Aphibarnrat to have any hope of progressing but he's still alive for now and I fancy he won't let himself down today against a weak-performing Bradley.

Round one of the Corales Puntacana Championship has been completed and after an opening nine-under-par 63, Brice Garnett shows the way. My picks were a bit disappointing yesterday with -3 (Trey Mullinax and Fabian Gomez) being the best any could muster but there's a long way to go. The first two winners of the tournament were trailing by four and five strokes after round one so I'm going to see what today brings and take a more detailed look tomorrow.

11:15 - March 22, 2017

I had to go out for a few hours last night, so I didn't see all the action at the WGC - Dell Technologies Match Play and that's perhaps not a bad thing given my sole bet on the tournament before the off was on Rory McIlroy.

I left the house just as his match against Peter Uihlein began and my last check of the action before I left the house showed Rory with eight feet for birdie at the first hole, with Uihlein in trouble. I assumed a 1 up lead and went on my merry way. When I next got a chance to check the scores, Uihlein was three up through five!

It got worse from then on with the American going five up before a late run of five straight birdies saw McIlroy take the tie all the way to the 17th but the damage was done and Uihlein has put himself in pole position in the group with a 2&1 victory.

Elsewhere, there were surprise defeats for Dustin Johnson against Bernd Wiesberger and Phil Mickelson verses Charles Howell III and Jon Rahm was held to a draw against Keegan Bradley.

Rahm, who's Dave Tindall's number one pick, shot a 59 in practice and he was a popular pick before the off. He should put that scare behind him today and beat Chez Reavie and the 16/1 is tempting but I'm reluctant to side with him in the outright market.

Given Bradley's appalling record in the event (one win in seven) I thought Rahm would easily overcome the American yesterday and I'm happy to swerve him given he has tenacious match play maestro, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, still to play.

I was under the impression that head to head results were used to decide the outcome of the groups in the event of any ties but from what I can gather, that ruling has been dispensed with and any players tied will now playoff to decide who progresses and with that in mind, I've gone in again on Rory McIlroy - this time each-way at 25/1.

The fact that his two other group opponents - Brian Harman and Jhonattan Vegas - tied their opening match yesterday, hands Rory a lifeline and if he wins his remaining group ties, against Harman and Vegas, he's odds-on to progress. Should McIlroy beat those two, Uihlein would need a win and a tie at least to progress and I fancy Rory's chances of winning the group are better than the odds on offer.

That early rust was understandable after his win on Sunday and I'm confident he'll bounce back and win his remaining two ties. Obviously, I need Uihlein to slip up but that could happen as early as today with Harman the favourite to beat him. In addition to pressing my outright wager, I've had a small bet on Rory at 3.90 to win Group 6.

I wasn't going to get involved with individual matches, but I've had a look to see if anything tickles my fancy today and I really quite like a couple. As touched on above, Bradley's match play record is poor and he's going to have to bounce back from the disappointment of chucking away half a point against Rahm (his tee-shot on 18 when 1-up was awful). His opponent today, Aphibarnrat is developing into quite a performer in this code and odds-against about the Thai looks more than fair. His last two victories on the European Tour (the Paul Lawrie Match Play and the World Super 6 Perth) were both match play tournaments and after a comprehensive 3&2 win over Reavie yesterday, he looks a good thing.

Nobody needs me to tell them how good Ian Poulter is in this code so it's perhaps surprising to see him trading at as big as 2.40 to beat Daniel Berger today. Following his 3&2 defeat to Kevin Chappell yesterday, Berger's record in the event is now a thoroughly disappointing - won one, lost six. Poulter beat Tommy Fleetwood 3&2 yesterday and I fancy him to beat Berger today too.

The Corales Puntacana Championship is due to start shortly so here's my preview from Tuesday.

WGC - Dell Technologies Match Play Pre-Event Selection:
Rory McIlroy @ 9.80

In-Play Bets
Rory McIlroy each-way @ 25/1 (Sportsbook)
Rory McIlroy to win Group 6 @ 3.90
Ian Poulter to beat Daniel Berger @ 2.40
Kiradech Aphibarnrat to beat Keegan Bradley @ 2.02
Xander Schauffele to beat Sergio Garcia @ 2.80
Branden Grace to beat Marc Leishman @ 2.02
Chez Reavie to beat Keegan Bradley @ 2.06

Corales Puntacana Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Scott Piercy @ 34.00
Trey Mullinax @ 48.00
Harris English @ 50.00
David Lingmerth @ an average of [64.0]
Robert Streb @ an average of [122.0]
Johnson Wagner @ 150.00
Fabian Gomez - each-way @ 150/1