Canterbury Bulldogs v Penrith Panthers
Friday, March 23, 6pm (AEDT)
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Friday, March 23, 6pm (AEDT)
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
The Bulldogs will be looking to get on the board for 2018 when they host the unbeaten Panthers at ANZ Stadium on Friday night. The draw hasn’t been kind to the Bulldogs, with losses to the Storm and Roosters over the opening two rounds. Meanwhile, the Panthers have done things the hard way over the first two rounds, with two come-from-behind wins in consecutive weeks and will be looking for a quick start against a desperate Bulldogs side.
FormCanterbury are winless in their two games with losses to the Storm and Roosters in which they have given up 30-plus in each and lost both by 18. The Bulldogs have conceded the second most points so far this season. They are 0-2 ATS with a 1-1 over-under record. Penrith have overcome 14-point deficits in both their matches in 2018 to win at home against Parramatta and South Sydney. They are 1-1 ATS with a 2-0 under number. Penrith have scored the fifth most points this season.
Key MatchupMoses Mbye v Dylan Edwards: Mbye has showed glimpses of brilliance since his move to fullback, but needs to do more with the ball in hand to take the pressure off Kieran Foran. He has speed to burn and has already made two line-breaks across the opening two rounds. Panthers fullback Dylan Edwards has made a strong start to the season, with 12 tackle-breaks so far, and had three line-breaks in the Round 1 win over the Eels. He has a great motor and is one of the main reasons why the Panthers were happy to allow Matt Moylan to go to the Sharks in the off-season.
Stats That Matter– Penrith have won three straight and 13 of their last 20 against Canterbury.
– The last eight at ANZ have been split evenly between the teams.
– The last nine meetings have all tallied less than 42 points.
– The Bulldogs have a 51-38-3 all-time advantage over the Panthers.
– Since 2008 home underdogs of 4 or more in the first four rounds of the season are 41-13 ATS – the best angle in Rugby League.
– The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 15 at ANZ as an underdog while they have covered 6 of 7 at ANZ after conceding 30 points.
– Penrith have won just 1 of 6 at ANZ since 2015, covering just two.
– The Panthers are 29-15 under away from Penrith Stadium.
– Penrith are 11-4 under on the road after conceding 14 or fewer.
– The last eight at ANZ have been split evenly between the teams.
– The last nine meetings have all tallied less than 42 points.
– The Bulldogs have a 51-38-3 all-time advantage over the Panthers.
– Since 2008 home underdogs of 4 or more in the first four rounds of the season are 41-13 ATS – the best angle in Rugby League.
– The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 15 at ANZ as an underdog while they have covered 6 of 7 at ANZ after conceding 30 points.
– Penrith have won just 1 of 6 at ANZ since 2015, covering just two.
– The Panthers are 29-15 under away from Penrith Stadium.
– Penrith are 11-4 under on the road after conceding 14 or fewer.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is expecting a very desperate Bulldogs side to come out with all guns blazing here. The Panthers have dodged a bullet, with their slow starts over the past two weeks and could slip up here. This is the Bulldogs’ first home game of the year, while this statistic is impossible to ignore! Since 2008 home underdogs of 4 or more in the first four rounds of the season are 41-13 ATS. Proceed with caution, but The Wolf is tipping the Bulldogs for the upset.
How It’s Shaping UpCanterbury by 4
Recommended BetsBest: Canterbury +4.5 ($1.91)
Value: Canterbury 1-8/Canterbury 1-12 ($10)
First Tryscorer: Will Hopoate
Value: Canterbury 1-8/Canterbury 1-12 ($10)
First Tryscorer: Will Hopoate
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