England v Italy
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on ITV1

The better the opposition the better England perform

England extended their unbeaten run to seven games with a controlled 1-0 victory over Holland on Friday night, a win that saw Gareth Southgate's men record their third consecutive clean sheet following previous shut-outs against Germany and Brazil.
The Three Lions put in an assured performance against the Dutch, defending superbly - with Kyle Walker excelling on the right side of a three-man centre-back formation - and attacking with pace and intent throughout the game. The only criticism is that England only scored one goal, thanks largely to a lot of indecision in the final third. But overall it was a solid eight out of 10 performance, an excellent start to the international break.
It seems the better the opposition, the better England perform. Not that Holland are a great side, but they're a big name and for the Three Lions to defeat them in their own back yard was a decent scalp. It bodes well then ahead of Tuesday night's friendly against Italy, another big name, but there's a sense that in terms of the World Cup this summer we've been here before. England qualify easily, the build-up to a major tournament goes well. We all know what usually happens next.
Southgate could make lots of changes to the starting XI in Amsterdam, with the likes of Dele AlliAshley Young, and Jamie Vardy likely to play from the outset, Lewis Cook to earn his first cap, and although the system is set to be unchanged, the defensive line-up could also be very different. Defender Joe Gomez and midfielder Jack Wilshere will both definitely miss the match due to injury.

Out of form Azzurri in transition

This is undoubtedly a difficult time for Italy. They failed to qualify for the World Cup for the first time in 60 years when losing a two-legged play-off to Sweden, and Friday's defeat to Argentina at the Etihad Stadium means they've won just one of their last six matches, that coming by a single-goal margin against minnows Albania.
Friday's game was dull in all honesty. Most of those who turned up at the Etihad Stadium had gone to see Lionel Messi in action, but he was rested and spent the full 90 minutes sitting in the stands. Instead the Manchester locals witnessed an Italian team attempt to do what they do best; defend well and try and pinch a goal at the other end. Unfortunately this Italian side just don't have the quality - especially going forward - to do what they used to do so efficiently.
The trip to Wembley will almost certainly be Luigi Di Biagio's last game in temporary charge of the Azzurri, so he's sure to have his team fired up. He is likely to go with a 4-3-3 formation, but whether he'll go with his strongest side available - which would include the likes of Gianluigi Buffon, Leonardo Bonucci, Marco Verratti, and Ciro Immobile - or give some of the younger players he called up to the squad a chance, we'll have to wait and see.

Current form points to a home win

Making recommendedations on international frielndly matches before the starting line-ups are known is notoriously a difficult task, and tipping up England to win at 2.14 against a major force would usually be the last thing on my mind. But this Italian side - even at their strongest - are no longer a major force, while you sense that England are very much on the up under Southgate.
They have pace in almost every positon, players performing and excelling at the highest level with their club sides, and they certainly don't lack desire. Southgate is in an extremely healthy position; two players for almost every position, all desperate to impress to seal a World Cup place.
I'm really starting to like this England team, their tails are up and I'm expecting them to have few problems in getting the win on Tuesday night.
Italy - available to back at 4.20 - will defend well, as they usually do, and it will be up to England to be patient. I'm confident they'll make the breakthrough at some stage however, and given their strong defensive displays against Brazil, Germany, and Holland, plus Italy's lack of quality in attack, then another clean sheet looks on the cards.
An England Win to Nil - a bet I'm making my best wager of the game - is priced at 11/5 on the Sportsbook, while you can back a home Clean Sheet at 5/4.

Goals markets fully justified

Let's look at the facts. Italy haven't scored a single goal in any of their last three matches, all three finished with two goals or fewer being scored. England haven't conceded a goal in any of their last three matches, and likewise, all three finished with two goals or fewer being scored.
Delving further, all five of Italy's recent games went under the 2.5 goals barrier, and so too did England's. In fact England's last five matches have averaged 0.6 goals per game, Italy's last five have averaged 1.2 goals per game.
Ahead of this match we can back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.60. I hate backing 'unders' at such short odds because it only takes an early sending off, a moment of genius, or an individual error to completely spoil the bet, but in this case the odds are fully justified and you can actually make a case for them being generous.
It's not a bet I'll be having, but it's impossible to put anyone off.
RECOMMENDED BETS
Back England to Win @ 2.14
Back England Win to Nil @ 11/5 (best bet)

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