NRL Preview Round 4: Roosters v Warriors

Sydney Roosters v New Zealand Warriors
Saturday, March 31, 5:30pm (AEDT)
Allianz Stadium, Sydney

The Roosters have well and truly bounced back after their shock loss to the Tigers in Round 1 and it has coincided with the return of Luke Keary, who has been exceptional in the wins over the Bulldogs and Knights. The Warriors got out of jail against the Raiders last week on the back of Shaun Johnson’s boot and now find themselves three from three to start the season. This will be the Warriors biggest test to date, with an easier draw to start the season.

FormThe Sydney Roosters’ season started slowly with a loss to the Wests Tigers before two very impressive wins against Canterbury and Newcastle. Both those wins came on home turf. New Zealand are in the throes of their best ever start to a season with three straight wins against South Sydney and Canberra in Australia and the Gold Coast in Auckland. The Warriors came from seven down with four minutes remaining to win in Canberra. The Warriors haven’t conceded 20 points in 2018. 

Key MatchupRoger Tuivasa-Sheck v James Tedesco: The old RTS is back! He has four try-assists to his name already to go with his four line-breaks and 10 tackle-breaks. He’s  back to his running best and is also setting up his outside men too. He’ll be looking for a big performance against his former club here and will fancy the challenge against the inconsistent James Tedesco. Tedesco looks like he is struggling to find his role in this Roosters side whereas at the Tigers he ran the show and got the ball whenever he wanted it. He dominated against the Bulldogs with a try and two try-assists, but had limited impact against the Knights, although torrential conditions might have played its part. The Wolf is expecting Teddy to find his feet at Bondi sooner rather than later, and is set for a strong match here.

Stats That Matter-The Roosters are 2-1 ATS with a 2-1 under record while the Warriors are 3-0 ATS with a 2-1 under record.
– The Warriors have surprisingly won three straight against the Roosters as well as 10 of the last 16.
– The Roosters have won three of the last four against the Warriors at Allianz Stadium.
– Three of the last four matches have tallied 27 points or fewer.
– The Roosters are 23-17 ATS at Allianz since 2015 with an 11-7 ATS record as a home favourite of more than 8 points (12-6 under).
– The under is 19-12 at Allianz when the Roosters are favoured at the ground.
– The Roosters have covered just 1 of their last 7 off a win of 20 or more.
– The Warriors have won and covered both games this year in Australia but have covered just 5 of their last 15 in Australia.
– New Zealand have covered just 1 of their last 9 night matches in Australia.
– Since 2015 the under is 9-1 in Warriors night matches when the Warriors are getting a start of 8 or more (0 straight wins, 4-6 ATS).
– The Warriors are 14-5 under since 2008 when riding a three-game win streak

Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is expecting a cracking contest here, with the unders the best play. Three of the past four clashes have tallied 27 points or fewer, while The Warriors are 14-5 under since 2008 when riding a three-game win streak. The Roosters have also not conceded more than 12 points per match across the opening three rounds and should have success shutting the Warriors down. Roosters 1-12 the other recommended play here.

How It’s Shaping UpSydney by 4

Recommended BetsBest: Under 42.5 ($1.88)
Value: Sydney 1-12 ($2.90)
First Tryscorer: Luke Keary ($17)