NRL Preview Brisbane Broncos v North Queensland Cowboys

NRL Preview Brisbane Broncos v North Queensland Cowboys Saturday September 12, 7:55pm (AEST), Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Best Bet: Over 39.5 ($1.90) Other: Brisbane -4.5 ($1.90)

The Broncos and Cowboys have made a habit of playing each other in finals football and meet again at Suncorp in what should be a belter of an all-Queensland derby with a preliminary final berth on the line. The Broncos have been the standard-bearers all year while the Cowboys have had their finest ever regular season. Sparks will be flying when these two go at it. 


Brisbane have three inclusions with Ben Hunt, Alex Glenn and Jordan Kahu back into the team. Ash Taylor, David Stagg and Lachlan Maranta make way. The Cowboys get a fair in themselves with Michael Morgan back at five-eighth with Ray Thompson dumped.

Brisbane have a 28-11-2 record against North Queensland but the matchup has been fairly even since 2011 with the Cowboys holding a 7-5 edge. The teams met twice this year with the Broncos embarrassing the Cowboys 44-22 at Suncorp before the Cowboys won 31-20 in Townsville. The Broncos hold a 7-4 advantage at Suncorp with the Cowboys not winning at the venue since 2012. The teams have met in three finals previously and astonishingly the Cowboys have won each – in 2004, 2012 and 2014. High scoring games have been all the rage of late with the last three topping 50. Cowboys trio Antonio Winterstein, Jake Granville and Ben Hannant are all former Broncos. Michael Morgan has scored five tries in his last three games against the Broncos. 

Latest NRL Power Rankings

Brisbane and North Queensland both finished with 17-7 record with the Cowboys posting a marginally better attack but the Broncos having a notably better defence. Brisbane posted a win streak of eight before limping into the finals with just two wins from their final six games, rolling the Dragons and Rabbitohs. The Broncos went 9-3 at home this season and were 8-5 against Top 8 teams and 3-3 against Top 4 sides. Brisbane have not conceded 19 or more in their last five or eight of their last nine. The Cowboys have been similarly shaky with just two wins in their last five matches and both victories came after falling behind to strugglers New Zealand and Gold Coast. The Cowboys have posted 30-plus in five of their last eight. On the road this year they are 9-3 while against Top 4 opposition they are 2-3. 

Finals Week 1 NRL Odds

The battle between halfbacks Ben Hunt and Johanthan Thurston will be epic and will determine this one. Thurston is in line for a record fourth Dally M Medal and has had a sublime year leading the NRL in try assists with 22. Hunt’s form should not be underestimated though. He has 16 assists with 10 tries and has had one of the most impactful kicking games all year. He has an incredible five tries and four assists in his last three games. The No.7 that gets his team on top early will come away victorious.

Champion Data Formguide: Broncos v Cowboys

The Broncos are 16-8 ATS this year and 12-12 over-under while the Cowboys are 11-13 ATS with a 15-9 over record. Brisbane are 22-14 ATS at home over the last three years with a 22-14 over record. Brisbane have covered eight of their last 10 when favoured by more than four points. The Cowboys have covered 10 of their last 13 as an outsider. They have covered six of their last seven when getting more than four points while they are 13-4 over in said situation over the last three seasons. The Cowboys have covered just two of their last seven after winning by 20-plus. The Broncos are 21-12 ATS off a loss over the last three years with a 19-14 over number.

William Hill Medal Voting

No team is more adept at coming back than North Queensland who are the only team in the NRL with a positive record after conceding the first try – winning an incredible 10 of 15 after giving up the first four-pointer. They are also astonishingly 8-5  when falling down by seven or more (1st in NRL) and they are the only team to overhaul a 13-point deficit three times this year, coming back from 13 down on three of eight occasions. The Broncos are 2-4 after conceding the first try and 1-6 after falling down by seven. The Cowboys can come from behind, the Broncos cannot. Brisbane are grand frontrunners though with a 15-3 record after scoring the first try, 13-1 when leading at halftime and 15-1 when leading after 60 while they are 14-2 when getting in front by more than a converted try. The Cowboys are 10-1 when in front at 60 minutes. 

NRL In-Play Insights

Expect plenty of points in this on a red-hot Suncorp in front of a rabid crowd. Both teams have plenty of points in them and tend to bring it out when they play each other. The low total is just there for picking off. First thoughts were that the Cowboys came into this going better but the Broncos’ numbers stack up alright despite the recent losses. The return of Ben Hunt is big and Wayne Bennett is the master of finals football. On their home turf Brisbane should be able to exploit the slow-starting Cowboys who, if they fall behind, won’t be coming back here.