NRL Preview Canterbury Bulldogs v St George Illawarra Dragons

NRL Preview Canterbury Bulldogs v St George Illawarra Dragons Saturday September 12, 5:50pm (AEST), ANZ Stadium, Sydney

Best Bet: Canterbury HT/FT ($1.53) Other: Canterbury -10.5 ($1.91)

The first elimination match of the 2015 finals series sees old rivals Canterbury and St George Illawarra square off at ANZ Stadium. The Bulldogs go in big favourites after winning five straight while the Dragons have limped into the finals and have been hurt by some key injuries. In finals football though, anything is possible. 


Canterbury welcome back former Dragons star Brett Morris at fullback with Chase Stanley dropping out of the team. Aiden Tolman will start with Sam Kasiano on the bench. The Saints are unchanged with Drew Hutchison again starting at five-eighth in place of the injured Gareth Widdop.

Canterbury have won 18 of 29 all-time against St George Illawarra and have had the best of the Dragons recently with six wins in the last seven outings. The teams met twice this year with the Dragons winning 31-6 in Round 6 before the Bulldogs saluted 29-16 in Round 13. Canterbury have scored 28-plus in five of their last eight against the Dragons. The Bulldogs are 8-6 all-time against the Dragons at ANZ. Five of the last six matches have tallied 37 points or more. This is the first finals clash between the two sides since 2001 when a Willie Peters field goal got the Saints home 23-22. Canterbury’s team contains three ex-Dragons in Brett and Josh Morris and Damien Cook. Josh Morris has scored eight tries in his last six games against the Dragons. 

Latest NRL Power Rankings

Canterbury hit the finals on the back of five straight wins though recent performances against Newcastle and New Zealand – both close wins – have been anything but impressive. The Bulldogs finished fifth on the ladder and finished with the fifth best differential. Canterbury’s attack ranks fifth while their defence was a disappointing ninth in the regular season. Canterbury’s current five-win streak is their best of the season. The Bulldogs have conceded 18-plus in their last three. Canterbury are 4-7 against Top 8 teams this year while they are 8-5 at ANZ. St George Illawarra finished the season in eighth position, ranking sixth in differential, fourth in defence and 14th in attack. They have won four of their last six but all against teams outside the eight with seven straight losses against Top 8 teams, five of which were by 13-plus. The Saints are 2-2 at ANZ this year. 

Finals Week 1 NRL Odds

Fullbacks Brett Morris and Josh Dugan will be front and centre in this one. The Bulldogs have really struggled without Morris but have been scintillating with him. The Bulldogs have won the last seven matches when Morris has run for 110m while the Bulldogs are 0-3 since Round 5 when he hasn’t, making his performance and involvement critical. Dugan has not had his best year but still leads the Dragons in tackle breaks with 114 while he has averaged 163 metres a game. He has only one assist this year but when he runs hard and gets involved the Dragons are at their best.

Champion Data Formguide: Bulldogs v Dragons

Des Hasler coached teams who have won five-straight in a season have made the Grand Final every time. Canterbury are 12-12 ATS and 12-12 over-under while St George Illawarra are 12-12 ATS and 16-8 under. The Bulldogs have covered four of their last six at ANZ. They have also covered six of their last nine at the ground as a double digit favourite. Over the last two seasons the Bulldogs are 6-0 with a 3-3 ATS record when favoured at ANZ by more than a converted try. The Dragons have failed to cover their last three when an outsider of more than a converted try and just one of four over the last two years getting double digits.  The Bulldogs have covered seven of their last 11 on a five-game streak. The Saints are 4-10 ATS off allowing 30 points. Canterbury are 1-3 under Jared Maxwell this year.

William Hill Medal Voting

Canterbury and St George Illawarra are both 9-2 after leading at the 20-minute mark making the first quarter of this match critical. Both teams rarely give up a lead either with the Bulldogs 13-1 when leading by seven while the Dragons are 10-1. Neither team has given up a lead of 13 or more in 2015. Neither team has shown any aptitude to come from behind this year. The Bulldogs are 2-9 after going down by seven while the Dragons are 2-10. Both are 1-6 when trailing by 13 or more. This season a lead of 7 or more has been overcome 19.8% of the time while a halftime deficit has been overcome in 28.7% of matches. The Dragons are a shocking 3-10 when not posting first points. 

NRL In-Play Insights

This elimination final is Canterbury’s for the taking. The key is Brett Morris. When he is playing, the Bulldogs are a totally different team, playing more direct and with a lot more options through the middle. He could have played last week and should tear his former team apart. The Dragons look done and have for a long time. They have been ordinary against ordinary sides and have generally been embarassed against the better teams over the back half of the year. If the push for the Bulldogs is legitimate, they will annihilate the Dragons.