AFL Preview: Elimination Final Richmond Tigers v North Melbourne

AFL Preview: Elimination Final
Richmond Tigers v North Melbourne
3:20pm AEST, Sunday, September 13
MCG, Melbourne

Best Bet
North Melbourne +8.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended BetsNorth Melbourne 1-39 ($2.80)
Was the resting worth it? The North Melbourne-nine will return but will it reverse the 40-point loss that Richmond inflicted upon the Roos last week? Can the Tigers banish the memories of their recent elimination finals disasters?

Richmond $1.60 | Line -8.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.10) | 40+ ($5.40) |Ov. 168.5 ($1.88)
Nth Melbourne  $2.35 | Line +8.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.80) | 40+ ($12) | Un. 168.5 ($1.88)

Latest Richmond v North Melbourne Odds

Selection Notes.
Having rested nine players last weekend, North will regain Shaun Higgins, Nick Dal Santo, Todd Goldstein, Jarrad Waite, Andrew Swallow, Scott Thompson, Michael Firrito, Ben Cunnington and Sam Wright. Also pushing for selection are Kayne Turner, Lindsay Thomas and veteran Daniel Wells. The Tigers aren’t expected to make any changes at all with only Ben Griffiths, Reece Conca and Matt Thomas likely to come in.

Richmond v North Melbourne – Champion Data Form-Guide 

Last Time They Met
It was only nine days prior that these two teams met at Etihad Stadium with a vastly different North Melbourne team engaged in this final. The Tigers had nine individual goal kickers last weekend with Vickery, Martin, Lambert and Riewoldt all kicking multiple majors. Alex Rance dominated in defence for the Tigers too. For North, Jamie Macmillan appreciated a midfield role with 27 disposals whilst Kayne Turner kicked three goals.


Form
The Roos have lost two in a row but didn’t really try to win last week against Richmond to finish eighth on the ladder. North is a league-worst 3-6 (4-5 against the line) vs the other finalists this season, they are averaging 106 points per game over the last eight weeks (not Round 23). After a sluggish start The Tigers had a confidence boosting win over North. Richmond is 4-5 (3-6 against the line) vs top eight teams this season. They have conceded an average of just 61-points over the last six weeks.

Latest AFL Finals Week 1 Betting

Key Match-UpDustin Martin v Ben Jacobs – The North tagger has taken some big scalps this season including Nat Fyfe, Tom Rockliff, Nathan Jones and Dyson Heppell. Expect him to get the job of quelling Dustin Martin after the Tigers star amassed 21 disposals and three goals last week.


Stats That MatterNorth Melbourne has won five of their last six against Richmond with that loss coming last weekend. Since 2010, North is 6-2 (7-1 against the line) vs the Tigers. Eight of the last 10 match-ups have totalled over 168-points. Drew Petrie has kicked 24 goals in his last seven games against Richmond. Richmond forward Ty Vickery has kicked 15 goals in his past four games. Richmond is 17-7 (11-13 against the line) when starting as favourite in 2014-15. North Melbourne is 11-3 (12-2) both head to head and against the line following a loss in 2014-15. Since 2010, North is 2-2 both head to head and against the line in finals. The Tigers are 0-2 having lost their last two elimination finals in dramatic fashion. Under Brad Scott, North are 7-5 (8-4 against the line) at the MCG. The Tigers are 13-12 (12-13 against the line) at the MCG since the start of 2014. Jack Riewoldt has kicked the first goal in four games this year which is tied with the most of any player this year. Brandon Ellis has had the most disposals in a match six times this season.

Finals Stats
Since 2012, the margin 1-39 is the most common result hitting in 23 out of the last 28 finals. Since 2011, only 13 of the last 36 finals have totalled over 190-points. In 2014, six of the nine finals totalled over 189-points. Favourites are 19-8 (14-13 against the line) in the finals in the last three years.


IN-Play 
Out of the finals sides, North have the worst record when leading at quarter-time (8-3) and half-time (9-2). Richmond is 8-1 and 11-2 at those same breaks. Both Richmond (2-5) and North (2-7) have come back from 24-point deficits this year. North is 10-9 in games decided by two goals or less in the past three years whilst Richmond is just 7-7.

Betting Data
2015 Line:  Richmond 11-11, North Melbourne 13-9
2015 Over/Under: Richmond 10-12. North Melbourne 12-10

Final Thoughts
The Wolf thinks North Melbourne can re-open Richmond’s finals scars and cause an upset to round out week 1 of the 2015 AFL Finals. Many people forget that the Roos made it to the preliminary final last year and they are talented enough to beat the Tigers. The Tigers were shocked into submission against Port Adelaide last year and if North come out with the same pressure and intensity in the first quarter then that could rattle Richmond’s confidence. With the benefit of rest, North’s ball winners will be primed for action and if they can get the ball in quick to Waite, Brown, Petrie, Higgins and co then it will go a long way to an upset.

How It’s Shaping Up 
North Melbourne by 8 points

Best Bet
North Melbourne +8.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended BetsNorth Melbourne 1-39 ($2.80)