North Queensland Cowboys v Cronulla Sharks
Saturday September 19, 7:55pm (AEST), 1300 Smiles Stadium, Townsville
The second semi-final sees North Queensland host Cronulla in a fascinating elimination final in Townsville on Saturday night in front of what is sure to be a rabid Cowboys fanbase. North Queensland threw everything they had at the Broncos last week but couldn’t get the job done while the Sharks come off the most dominant first week showing.
North Queensland are unchanged from the team that defeated Brisbane and are at virtual full strength. Cronulla have also named an unchanged team with Matt Prior travelling as 18th man.
The Sharks are also at full strength.
North Queensland are unchanged from the team that defeated Brisbane and are at virtual full strength. Cronulla have also named an unchanged team with Matt Prior travelling as 18th man.
The Sharks are also at full strength.
Cronulla have won 23 of 37 all-time against North Queensland. The teams met in the finals in 2013 with the Sharks holding on for an extremely controversial victory in the dying seconds with a seven-tackle try among the other Cowboy grievances. The Cowboys have won seven of the last 11 against the Sharks but Cronulla have won both games this season and have three wins in the last five plus a golden point loss when the Sharks were the biggest outsiders in 15 years last season. The last six matches have all topped 38 points. The last eight matches in Townsville have been split evenly. Cowboys coach Paul Green is a former Sharks halfback. Antonio Winterstein has scored three tries in his last four games against the Sharks.
The Cowboys finished third on the ladder with a 17-7 record and the third best differential in the NRL. The Cowboys have the third best attack and fifth best defence in the premiership. The Cowboys have won just two of their last six, losing their last four against Top 8 opposition. The Cowboys are 5-7 against Top 8 teams this year. At home in 2015 the Cowboys are 8-4. North Queensland’s defence has been solid and consistent over the last month, not allowing more than 16 points, while in attack they have posted 42 and 50 as well as 6 and 12. Since Round 16, North Queensland have averaged 14.4 points against Top 8 teams and 38 against non-eight teams. The Sharks finished the year in sixth spot with a negative differential. Cronulla rank sixth in defence and seventh in attack. Over the second half of the season their attack has improved by 2.4 pints a game while their defence has improved by 1.2 points per match. The Sharks hit this clash with 11 wins in their last 14. Cronulla have won six of their last seven against Top 8 opposition and are 8-4 against Top 8 opposition this year. Cronulla are 4-1 interstate this year.
The battle between hookers Jake Granville and Michael Ennis should be an absolute beauty. Both are competing for the buy of the year and both will be expected to have a huge impact on this final. The young Granville has been explosive all season, leading all hookers in tries with 11, while ranking top three in tackle breaks and run metres. The pace of last week got to him though and he managed just 44 minutes. He needs to keep up in this game, which will be a rugged affair, as the Cowboys cannot win without him setting a high-tempo from dummy half. The Sharks, by contrast, prefer the grind and Michael Ennis is the perfect man for that. Cronulla’s big advantage comes from running courage lines and Ennis finds his runners well. He leads all hookers in try assists. As the Sharks’ primary creator, he cannot be allowed to roam free with the Cowboys needing to niggle at him all night.
North Queensland are 11-14 ATS this season with a 15-10 over number while Cronulla are 14-11 ATS with a 13-12 over number. The Cowboys have covered just two of their last seven while the Sharks have covered 8 of their last 10. North Queensland have played five finals at home in their history and have won each with four wins by double digits. The Sharks last played in a preliminary final in 2008 and have not played in a Grand Final since 1997. The Sharks have covered their last three and four of seven interstate. The Cowboys have covered just three of 12 at home this year and just 2-6 ATS when favoured by more than a converted try. Favourites have won five of the last six finals week two matches but have covered just twice.
The Cowboys are terribly slow starters, scoring the first try in just nine of 25 matches this year. They are 7-2 when scoring first. No team comes back like the Cowboys though, winning 10 of 16 when failing to score the first four-pointer. That strike rate of 62.5% wins is well ahead of second-placed Brisbane (50%) and the NRL average of 33.67%. The Cowboys also have the only positive record when trailing by seven (57%) against the NRL average of 19%. When leading at halftime the Cowboys are strong with an 11-2 record while they are 12-2 when getting out to a seven-point lead. The Sharks are 10-4 when posting the first score and just 5-6 when not posting the first points. They are a great front-running team with an 11-2 record when leading by seven points while they are 10-3 when leading at halftime. When trailing by seven the Sharks have come back on just four of 11 occasions.
The Cowboys go into this final as big favourites against the Sharks but a blowout will really surprise in this one with the Sharks in this up to their eyeballs. Make no mistake: the Sharks are a team playing with about 5000 chips on their collective shoulder. They are playing tough. They are performing against big-time opposition. They can win on the road. They have a ton of experience. If they can keep this game to a grind, they have enough talent across the park and enough grit in their heart to shock the Cows. North Queensland have a few major question marks. Their recent performances against Top 8 teams has been poor. They just don’t match up all that well with the Sharks. In the end class and a home-field advantage should get the Cowboys home but the plus is way too big and needs to be taken as the bet of the weekend.
The Cowboys go into this final as big favourites against the Sharks but a blowout will really surprise in this one with the Sharks in this up to their eyeballs. Make no mistake: the Sharks are a team playing with about 5000 chips on their collective shoulder. They are playing tough. They are performing against big-time opposition. They can win on the road. They have a ton of experience. If they can keep this game to a grind, they have enough talent across the park and enough grit in their heart to shock the Cows. North Queensland have a few major question marks. Their recent performances against Top 8 teams has been poor. They just don’t match up all that well with the Sharks. In the end class and a home-field advantage should get the Cowboys home but the plus is way too big and needs to be taken as the bet of the weekend.
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