AFL Preview: Elimination Final Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows

AFL Preview: Elimination Final
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows
7:20pm AEST, Saturday, September 12
MCG, Melbourne

Best BetWestern Bulldogs 1-39 ($2.35)

Other Recommended BetsOver 183.5 Total Match Points ($1.88)

The Bulldogs are looking for their first finals win in five seasons and come up against an Adelaide side that is desperate to honour their former coach Phil Walsh by delivering a premiership to the city of churches.

Bulldogs $1.85 | Line -2.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.35) | 40+ ($6.50) |Ov. 183.5 ($1.88)
Adelaide  $2.00 | Line +2.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.55) | 40+ ($7.70) | Un. 183.5 ($1.88)

Latest Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Odds

Selection Notes.
The Dogs will be without important duo Jordan Roughead (finger) and Jason Johannisen (calf) with Robert Murphy, Matthew Boyd and Dale Morris certain inclusions whilst big men Tom Campbell, Tom Boyd and Will Minson all chances to be recalled. For the Crows, Brodie Smith (ankle) should return. They will have five changes from the side that lost to the Bulldogs by 57-points in round 4 with Jake Kelly, Cam Ellis-Yolment, Matt Wright, Dave Mackay and Matthew Jaensch all not playing.

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide – Champion Data Form-Guide 

Last Time They Met
The Bulldogs triumphed by 57-points in round 4 when these two teams last met with Jake Stringer kicking six goals (before being subbed out in the third quarter) in the rout. Tom Boyd and Lin Jong both kicked multiple goals in the win whilst Robert Murphy and Jack Macrae were extremely influential. For the Crows, Scott Thompson had 38 disposals whilst Sam Jacobs had 43 hit-outs and Eddie Betts (four goals) and Patrick Dangerfield (two) kicked multiple majors. 


Form
The Dogs look to bounce back from their shock loss to Brisbane last round. They have won five of their last seven games coming into the finals and are averaging a staggering 116 points for in those games. The Bulldogs are 5-3 (6-2 against the line) vs other finalists this year. The Crows have won four of their last five games before squandering an opportunity to host a home final by losing to Geelong last weekend. They are averaging 127 points per game in their last month with contributions from Eddie Betts, Taylor Walker, Tom Lynch and Josh Jenkins up forward. Adelaide is 3-5 (4-4 against the line) vs the 2015 finalists.

Latest AFL Finals Week 1 Betting

Key Match-UpJake Stringer v Ricky Henderson – The Wolf is not sure who Adelaide will send to combat Stringer after the young Bulldog dominated their round 4 encounter. Kyle Hartigan and Jake Kelly were embarrassed and Henderson would have the size and strength to match Stringer. The 21-year old forward has kicked 22 goals in his last six games and could be the game breaker.


Stats That Matter
The Bulldogs lead the head-to-head match-up against Adelaide 22-18 in their 39 games. The Dogs have won six of their last nine against the Crows. Since 2010, the Bulldogs are 5-3 (5-3 against the line) vs Adelaide. They have not played at the MCG since 2007, with the Crows leading the head-to-head match-ups there 3-1. Since 2010, Adelaide is 3-10 (6-7 against the line) at the MCG.  Since 2010, the Bulldogs are 6-8 (6-8 against the line) at the MCG. The Bulldogs are the only team in the league to have no player kick the first goal of the game more than once (11-players tied with one game each). Adelaide’s Scott Thompson has had the most disposals in six matches this year.

Finals StatsSince 2012, the margin 1-39 is the most common result hitting in 23 out of the last 28 finals. Since 2011, only 13 of the last 36 finals have totalled over 190-points. In 2014, six of the nine finals totalled over 189-points. Favourites are 19-8 (14-13 against the line) in the finals in the last three years.



IN-Play 
The Bulldogs are 10-10 in games decided by 12-points or less in the last three seasons whilst the Crows are the worst of any finalists in games decided by under two goals – 6-12. Adelaide is an equal league best 100% when leading at three quarter-time this season – going 12-0. The Bulldogs are 4-6 when trailing at quarter-time this season which is the worst win rate of the finalists. Whilst the Crows are 1-7 when behind at the main break which is the worst comeback record in the league. The Bulldogs have given up two 24-point leads this year.

Betting Data
2015 Line:  Western Bulldogs 14-8, Adelaide 10-11
2015 Over/Under: Western Bulldogs 10-12. Adelaide 14-7

Final Thoughts
The Wolf thinks this sets up to be an entertaining elimination final with the Bulldogs’ relentless run and pressure being the deciding factor. Yes, the Dogs do not have much finals experience. Yes; they would have preferred to have played it at Etihad and yes; they struggled to defend against Brisbane last week but The Wolf is willing to overlook all of those. They have shown all year an unrivalled appetite for the contest and their ball movement at times has been unstoppable. The Wolf is a big believer in the young pups and will back accordingly. Also, with perfect weather predicted and both sides in dominant scoring form this one should have plenty of points in it. Overs.

How It’s Shaping Up 
Bulldogs by 13 points

Best BetWestern Bulldogs 1-39 ($2.35)

Other Recommended BetsOver 183.5 Total Match Points ($1.88)