AFL Semi Final : Hawthorn Hawks v Adelaide Crows

AFL Preview: Semi Final
Hawthorn Hawks v Adelaide Crows
7:50pm AEST, Friday, September 18
MCG, MelbourneThe Hawks quest for a third straight premiership hit a snag when they went down to West Coast last weekend whilst the Crows look to continue their fairy tale story with another finals win.

Best BetHawthorn 1-39 ($2.20)

Other Recommended BetsOver 189.5 Total Match Points ($1.88)

Hawthorn $1.32 | Line -21.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.20) | 40+ ($3.10) |Ov. 189.5 ($1.88)
Adelaide  $3.40 | Line +21.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($3.80) | 40+ ($17) | Un. 189.5 ($1.88)


Former Crow Jack Gunston will miss with an ankle injury that he sustained in the qualifying final loss to West Coast. Ryan Schoenmakers, James Sicily, Matt Spangher, Angus Litherland and Billy Hartung head the queue to replace him. The Crows are unlikely to make any changes with youngster Jake Lever seemingly the only addition.
The Hawks were comfortable victors in round 12 this season with a 29-point win. The Crows could not deal with Hawthorn’s intense pressure around the ball with many early errors by foot. Luke Breust, Isaac Smith and David Hale all kicked multiple goals for the Hawks whilst Liam Shiels (25 touches) and Luke Hodge (25) led the way for the reigning premiers. For Adelaide, Patrick Dangerfield had 31 disposals whilst Scott Thompson had 32. Taylor Walker might look to seek some vengeance on Sam Mitchell after his Mitchell ended his night with a crude knee to his thigh.
Hawthorn crashed back down to earth last Friday night with a heavy loss to the Eagles. They were error-riddled with West Coast’s insane pressure causing many skill errors from the Hawks. They scored their second lowest total for the year. The Hawks are 7-3 (6-4 against the line) vs top eight teams this season. The Crows have won five of their last six games after an entertaining win over the Bulldogs last weekend. They are averaging 123 points per game in their five weeks with constant contributions from Eddie Betts, Taylor Walker, Tom Lynch and Josh Jenkins up forward. Adelaide is 4-5 (5-4 against the line) vs the 2015 finalists.


Hawthorn and Adelaide have played 36 times with the Hawks leading 20-16. Hawthorn has won their last five games against the Crows. Since 2010, Hawthorn is 6-1 (but only 4-3 against the line) vs the Crows. The Crows are 3-4 (2-5 against the line) in Thursday/Friday games since the start of 2012. Hawks are 17-5 (10-12 against the line) on Friday night’s over the past two seasons. The Crows are 4-5 (3-6 against the line) in Thursday/Friday games since the start of 2012. Since 2010, Adelaide is 4-10 (7-7 against the line) at the MCG. The Hawks are 28-7 (17-18 ATL) at the ‘G since the start of 2013. Eddie Betts has kicked 19.5 in the last five weeks. Sam Mitchell averages 31 disposals per game in his last seven matches. Mitchell has had the most disposals in a match nine times this season. Patrick Dangerfield averages 34 touches in his last four matches against the Hawks. Six of the past seven match-ups have totalled over 188 points.


Since 2011, only 15 of the last 40 finals have totalled over 190-points. In 2014, six of the nine finals totalled over 189-points. Favourites are 20-11 (14-17 against the line) in the finals in the last three years. Since 2012, 27 of the last 32 finals have finished with a 1-39 margin. Since 2010, the Hawks are 9-5 (7-7 against the line) in finals. The Crows are 2-2 (3-1 against the line). 
The Crows are 13-0 when leading at three-quarter time this year whilst the Hawks are 15-2. Both Hawthorn (1-5) and Adelaide (1-8) have won when trailing at three-quarter time this year. The Hawks have never won when trailing by 24-points or more this year whilst the Crows are 1-7. The Crows are 7-12 in games decided by 12-points or less in the last three seasons whilst the Hawks are 10-6 in the same situation. But the Hawks are only 1-4 in games decided by two goals or less this year.
2015 Line:   Hawthorn 12-11, Adelaide 11-11
2015 Over/Under: Hawthorn 15-8, Adelaide 15-7


Hawthorn by 15 points

Much like Adelaide’s game last week, this game sets up as an extremely high scoring encounter. Both Adelaide and Hawthorn have some of the best scoring prowess in the league and as long as there is no inclement weather, expect this to be a shoot-out. The Wolf thinks the Hawks should bounce back and reach their fifth consecutive preliminary final. Jarryd Roughead will bounce back whilst Lewis and Shiels can definitely lift another cog too. The Crows have struggled to defend well in the past two weeks and if this goes into a shoot-out like The Wolf expects then the Hawks should prevail.

Hawthorn 1-39 ($2.30)
Over 189.5 Total Match Points ($1.88)