AFL Preview: Qualifying Final Fremantle Dockers v Sydney Swans

AFL Preview: Qualifying Final
Fremantle Dockers v Sydney Swans
3:20pm AEST, Saturday, September 12
Domain Stadium, Perth

Best BetFremantle 1-39 ($2)

Other Recommended BetsUnder 153.5 Total Match Points
Most Disposals Group A – Dan Hannebery
First Goal Scorer – Lewis Jetta

The well-rested Dockers hope to earn themselves a home preliminary final against a Sydney side that has found form by spanking some struggling sides in the last three weeks. 

Fremantle $1.34 | Line -19.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2) | 40+ ($3.70) |Ov. 153.5 ($1.88)
Sydney      $3.30 | Line +19.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($3.70) | 40+ ($17) | Un. 153.5 ($1.88)

Latest Fremantle v Sydney Odds

Selection Notes.
The big out is Lance Franklin (illness) who will be missing meaning Dean Towers will keep his spot. Co-captain Kieran Jack (knee) is unlikely to play again for the rest of the season whilst Nick Smith (hamstring) will miss another week too. Jarrad McVeigh (calf) and Luke Parker (leg) must pass fitness tests whilst Ben McGlynn is almost a certain starter. Youngster Brandon Jack is one who is likely to make way After resting 12 players last week, the Dockers should re-gain at least 10 of them plus Michael Walters, Nat Fyfe and potentially Hayden Ballantyne. Cam Sutcliffe (shoulder) and Jon Griffin (hamstring) must pass a fitness test to play.

Sydney v Fremantle – Champion Data Form-Guide 

Last Time They Met
The Dockers got the jump on Sydney in round 4 this season leading by eight goals at half-time. The Swans kicked seven goals to two in the second half but the damage was already done as Freo ran out 14-point victors. Matthew Pavlich and Chris Mayne kicked multiple goals for the Dockers whilst Nat Fyfe was dominant in the middle with 27 touches, eight clearances and kicking 1.2. For the Swans, Sam Reid played in defence and on the wing in one of his best games for the year whilst Franklin and Tippett were held to two goals each. Fremantle was without three key players that day – Hayden Ballantyne, Zac Dawson and Tommy Sheridan whilst the Swans were just missing Adam Goodes.



Form
The Dockers elected to rest 12 players  The Swans have found their scoring groove averaging 132-points per game in the past three weeks, winning by an average of 83-points though they were against the hapless Giants, Saints and Suns. All the while without relying too much on Lance Franklin. Against the Suns, Heeney, Cunningham, Tippett, Reid and Kennedy all kicked multiple goals. The Swans are just 3-5 (2-6 against the line) against top eight teams this year. 

Latest AFL Finals Week 1 Betting

Key Match-Up
Kurt Tippett v Luke McPharlin – The Swans big man has kicked just 9.5 goals in five games that he has played for Sydney without Lance Franklin and five of those goals were in round 21 this year against the Magpies. He has been playing in the ruck more predominantly after the bye and will be needed to play that role against Aaron Sandilands this weekend. He has kicked 10 goals in the last three weeks and if he can dominate down forward, the Swans will have a big chance to cause an upset.
Michael Walters v Dane Rampe – The Wolf can see Michael Walters being the difference in this one. Without Nick Smith, the job is likely to fall to a combination of Rhyce Shaw, Jeremy Laidler, Dane Rampe and Zak Jones and none of them will be able to contain his agility. Smith held him goalless in round 4 and he has kicked five bags of four this season. He is a good bet for most goals and should have a massive say in how this one plays out.



Stats That Matter
Sydney and Fremantle have met 30 times with the Swans leading 16-13-1 with the draw in 2013. The Swans have won two of the three finals between the pair.  The Swans are 22-10 (21-11 at the line) when outside of Sydney in the past three seasons – that’s 16-5 (12-9 against the line) in 2014-15. Sydney has won five of their past eight games in Perth – two losses against Fremantle (5-3 against the line). The Swans are 4-3 both head to head and against the line when starting as an outsider in 2014-15. The last eight games have been decided by an average of just 14-points. Under Ross Lyon, the Dockers are 41-9 (28-22 against the line) at Domain Stadium – 21-4 (13-12 against the line) in the last two seasons. Freo is 10-4 (7-7 against the line) following a loss since the start of 2013. The Swans are 5-3 (3-5 against the line) without Lance Franklin in the last two years. They are 3-2 (1-4 against the line) without Franklin but with Kurt Tippett in the same time frame. Josh Kennedy has had over 30 disposals in a phenomenal ten consecutive games. Swans midfielder Dan Hannebery has had the most disposals in an season-record 10 games this season.  Lewis Jetta has kicked the most goals in four games this year. Eight of their past 10 games have totalled over 161-points though their last six games have all gone under 176-points. 

Finals StatsSince 2011, only 13 of the last 36 finals have totalled over 190-points. In 2014, six of the nine finals totalled over 189-points. Favourites are 19-8 (14-13 against the line) in the finals in the last three years. Since 2012, 23 of the last 28 finals have finished with a 1-39 margin. The Dockers are 3-4 (4-3 ATL) in finals since the 2012 finals series. The Swans are 6-3 both head to head and against the line in the same time frame.



IN-Play 
The Dockers are a league-best 10-3 in games decided by 12-points or less in the last three seasons. The Swans are 6-4. Sydney is just one of three finals teams that are unbeaten when they have been in front at three quarter-time this season (13-0). The Dockers are the best comeback team in the finals – with the best winning percentage when trailing at quarter-time (5-3), half-time (4-4) and three quarter-time (2-4). So if Freo is trailing at any break, they could be a good In-Play bet.

Betting Data
2015 Line:  Fremantle 10-12, Sydney 9-13
2015 Over/Under: Fremantle 8-14. Sydney 8-14

Final Thoughts
The Dockers look hard to go past in what shapes to be a classic defensive slog. It is an extremely tough ask for the Swans to get the job done in a hostile environment, against the best team all year, whilst missing four of their eight most important players. As stated above, the Swans will need to find a way to stop Michael Walters and The Wolf is not confident they will be able to adequately handle both Walters and Hayden Ballantyne without All-Australian back pocket Nick Smith. The Dockers should have the advantage in the middle and though the Swans have shown they can kicks goals without Buddy, this will be a bridge too far.

How It’s Shaping Up 
Fremantle by 23 points

Best BetFremantle 1-39 ($2)

Other Recommended BetsUnder 153.5 Total Match Points
Most Disposals Group A – Dan Hannebery
First Goal Scorer – Lewis Jetta