NRL semi-final : Sydney Roosters v Canterbury Bulldogs

Sydney Roosters v Canterbury Bulldogs 
Allianz Stadium
Friday 7.55pm

After a shock loss to Melbourne in the opening weekend of the finals, the Sydney Roosters’ hopes of converting the minor premiership into the title proper now swing on a win against a Canterbury team who were lucky to escape their elimination battle with St George Illawarra on Saturday night. The Roosters go in big favourites with the hopes of avoiding the finals collapse that hit them so hard last year. 

Mitchell Pearce has named to return from a hamstring injury. He replaces Jackson Hastings with Suaia Matagi out of the side. Frank Pritchard has astonishingly escaped suspension and will take his spot in an unchanged Canterbury team. 

The Sydney Roosters and Canterbury have played 166 times dating back to 1935 – and an 87-7 win to the Dave  Brown led Tricolours – with the Roosters winning 83 and the Bulldogs 78, to go with five draws. The teams have remarkably met in 15 finals – and five premiership deciders – with the Bulldogs winning eight. The teams last met in the finals in 2004 with the Bulldogs securing a famous 16-13 win in their most recent premiership. The Roosters have well and truly had the running in recent times with five wins in the last six outings during the Trent Robinson era. The Roosters won both games this year – 24-10 and 38-28 – while they have won eight of the last 11 at Allianz Stadium. High scoring matches have been common with 10 of the last 12 topping 38 points. Canterbury have former Rooster winger Sam Perrett in their team. 

The Sydney Roosters claimed a third straight minor premiership but for the second straight season lost their opening final. The Roosters again finished with the best defence in the NRL while their 24.4 points per game ranks top in attack. The Chooks saw a 12-game win streak ended last Friday by the Storm in Sydney. After losing last season to Penrith in similar circumstances, the Roosters blew a 30-point lead against North Queensland but scraped home 31-30. The Roosters are 10-3 at the SFS this season while against teams in the bottom half of the eight they are 4-4. The Roosters conceded 20 points last week for just the fourth time since Round 6. Canterbury finished the season fifth on the ladder and hold the fifth best attack and seventh ranked defence. The Bulldogs were incredibly lucky to escape with an 11-10 win over the Dragons last Saturday, a victory that was their sixth on the trot. Their form has been in decline though with three straight single score wins over the Knights, Warriors and Dragons. Against Top 4 teams this season the Bulldogs are 2-4 while they are 1-2 in Sydney this year away from ANZ/Belmore. 

It is hard to look past the battle of No.7s Mitchell Pearce and Moses Mbye. The Roosters seemed to really miss Pearce’s organisation and calmness and times against the Storm and it forced the Chooks away from their game plan. He may not have been able to cut it at Origin level but he has been a key figure in three straight minor premierships. He is a massive inclusion this week but his hamstring will be tested. Canterbury have a lot riding on Moses Mbye – this week and going forward. He was nothing short of dreadful against the Dragons and has struggled notably over the last month. Canterbury desperately need him to organise, kick strongly and show some leadership. 

Champion Data Formguide: Roosters v Bulldogs

The Sydney Roosters are 14-11 ATS this year with a 16-9 under record while Canterbury are 12-13 ATS with a 13-12 under record. The Bulldogs have gone under in their last three while the Roosters have gone over the total in six of their last eight. The Roosters have covered just one of their last four at the SFS while they are 15-11 ATS under Trent Robinson when favoured by eight at the venue with the over 14-12. The Bulldogs have won just one of their last four matches at the SFS since 2013 while they are 19-16 ATS away from ANZ over that time. The Bulldogs are 18-12 ATS as an underdog since 2013 while they are 10-4 ATS getting more than a converted try. The Roosters have won and covered just one of their last five after conceding 20 points. Canterbury have won seven straight in games Brett Morris has run for 130 metres. Every Des Hasler coached team to win five straight in a season has gone on to play in the Grand Final. 

The Sydney Roosters are the best front runners in the NRL with a 14-2 record after leading at 20 mins and 17-1 when leading by seven or more at any point in a game. When ahead at halftime the Roosters are 16-4 but lost last week when in front at the break. They are a perfect 14-0 when getting ahead by 13 or more this year. Canterbury are 11-3 after scoring the first try this year and a super 13-1 when leading at halftime. When leading by seven the Bulldogs are also 13-1. This season a lead of 7 or more has been overcome 7.8% of the time while a halftime deficit has been overcome in 28.7% of matches. The Roosters have overcome two of three 13-point deficits (best in the NRL). The Bulldogs are terrible chasers with a 2-9 record when down by seven or more. 

The smell of a major upset is well and truly in the air. Have the Sydney Roosters peaked too early? They certainly did last year and their disappointing opening week finals showing suggests it could be happening again. Canterbury were lucky to survive but that is not unlike Bulldogs or Des Hasler teams of the past. If anything, the Bulldogs are resilient. This Canterbury team are notably outclassed here so this game will essentially be decided by the Roosters. If they are firing, Canterbury cannot run with the Roosters. The Chooks are slowing though and seem so vulnerable without Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Mitch Pearce still less than 100% fit. It would be a major shock but the smart money is with the Bulldogs in this one. 

Recommend bet  : 

Canterbury +8 ($1.82)