Sydney Swans v North Melbourne
7:20pm AEST, Saturday, September 18
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Bad kicking is bad football and thus the Swans played poorly when kicking themselves out of the game last weekend. North showed plenty of character when coming from behind last weekend and will back themselves to topple the Swans.
Best BetSydney 1-39
Other Recommended Bets
Under 160.5 Total Match Points ($1.88)
Sydney Swans $1.54 | Line -9.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.10) | 40+ ($5.30) |Ov. 160.5 ($1.88)
Nth Melbourne $2.50 | Line +9.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.90) | 40+ ($11) | Un. 160.5 ($1.88)
The Swans are likely to welcome back former All-Australian defender Nick Smith (hamstring) who could have been the difference between a win and a loss last week. Luke Parker (leg) will miss another week whilst Kieran Parker (knee) could make a surprise return. Sam Reid (hamstring) will miss the rest of the year as will Buddy Franklin (illness) Brandon Jack, Jake Lloyd and Gary Rohan would be most likely on the chopping block. For the Roos, they are unlikely to make too many changes. Daniel Wells is a minor chance to play whilst Kayne Turner, Luke McDonald, Aaron Mullett and Ryan Bastinac seem next in line.
North should have definitely finished closer to the Swans in round 11 when they went down by 16-points. The Roos kicked 6.9 in the second half to finish with 10.15 whilst the accurate Swans kicked 14.7.91. Todd Goldstein dominated with 37 hit-outs and 17 disposals whilst Adam Goodes, Gary Rohan, Kurt Tippett and Buddy Franklin all kicked multiple goals for the Swans. For the Roos, small forwards Robin Nahas, Lindsay Thomas and Shaun Higgins all kicked two goals each.
The Swans only have themselves to blame for failing to upset Fremantle last weekend after they kicked six first quarter behinds en-route to 7.18 for the match. The Swans are a league-worst 3-6 (3-6 against the line) against top eight teams this year. The Roos fought hard last week, overcoming a half-time deficit to kick nine goals to five in the second half to run out 17-point winners. North is 4-6 (5-5 against the line) vs the other finalists this season, they are averaging 106 points per game over the last nine weeks (not including Round 23).
Dan Hannebery v Ben Jacobs
The Kangaroos tagger took care of Richmond captain Trent Cotchin last weekend, keeping him to just nine touches. He will either go to Kennedy or Hannebery this weekend but with Hannebery’s superior running ability, expect Jacobs to look to blanket him. Hannebery has had the most disposals in an AFL-record 10 matches this season and if can be stopped then it will go a long way towards a North Melbourne victory.
This will be the 157th meeting between the two sides with Sydney leading 83-72 with one draw. The Swans have won nine of their last ten matches against the Kangaroos, dating back to 2008. Since 2010, Sydney is 7-1 (6-2 against the line) vs North. The Swans are 32-21 all-time at their second home – since the start of 2013, the Bloods are 7-5 (5-7 against the line) at ANZ Stadium. The Swans have won their last eight finals at ANZ Stadium including a 71-point win over North in last year’s prelim. North Melbourne is 9-11 both head-to-head and against the line outside of Victoria (other than Hobart) since the start of 2013. They have lost their only two games at ANZ Stadium. The Swans are 5-4 (4-5 against the line) without Lance Franklin in the last two years. They are 3-3 (2-4 against the line) without Franklin but with Kurt Tippett in the same time frame. Sydney is 10-5-1 (6-10 ATL) following a loss since the start of 2013. Eight of their last nine games have totalled under 172-points. Dane Swan averages over 36 Jarrad Waite has kicked 10 goals in his last three games. Swans midfielder Josh Kennedy has had over 30 disposals in a phenomenal 11 consecutive games. Four of the last five games have totalled over 165-points.
Since 2011, only 15 of the last 40 finals have totalled over 190-points. In 2014, six of the nine finals totalled over 189-points. Favourites are 20-11 (14-17 against the line) in the finals in the last three years. Since 2012, 27 of the last 32 finals have finished with a 1-39 margin. The Swans are 6-4 (7-3 against the line) in finals since 2012. Since 2010, North is 3-2 both head to head and against the line in finals.
The Kangaroos are 13-3 when they have led by 12-points or more at any stage this year. The Swans are 16-3 in the same situation. North is 7-9 when trailing by two goals or more at any stage whilst the Swans are just 4-7. The Swans are 6-5 in games decided by 12-points or less in the last three seasons whilst the Roos are 10-9. Sydney is 3-7 when trailing at three-quarter time this season whilst North is just 1-9. The Roos are 50% when losing at the first break so if they get down early, they could be a nice bet to come back. Furthermore, they’re 5-7 when trailing at half-time.
2015 Line: Sydney 10-13, North Melbourne 14-9
2015 Over/Under: Sydney 8-15, North Melbourne 13-10
Backs against the wall, without two of their big key forwards, the Swans should find a way to continue their dominance over North Melbourne. They showed last week that they can still produce manic defensive pressure around the ball whilst they look well equipped to deal with Waite, Brown and Petrie down back with Ted Richards, Heath Grundy and Dane Rampe. When it comes to the crunch, North cannot afford to have a slow start like they did last week against Richmond because it will be hard to run down the Swans. With the Swans lacking a real scoring punch, The Wolf doesn’t expect this to have too many points in it.
Sydney by 11 points
Sydney 1-39 ($2.10)
Under 160.5 Total Match Points ($1.88)
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