Friday, March 30, 8:05pm (AEDT)
Southern Cross Group Stadium, Sydney
The Sharks and Storm clash in a replay of the 2016 NRL Grand Final, with a big crowd expected in Cronulla. The Sharks got the job done against Parramatta last week without the likes of Matt Moylan and Luke Lewis, but will be sweating on the pair being fit to take on the defending premiers. The Storm bounced back from their shock loss to the Wests Tigers, with a comprehensive 30-14 win over the Cowboys.
FormCronulla were poor in close losses to North Queensland away and St George Illawarra at home before grinding out a 14-4 win away to Parramatta in which each team scored just a single try. The Sharks have the fifth best defence of any team this year. Melbourne opened the season up with a dominant with over Canterbury before a shock loss to the Tigers. They righted the ship last Thursday with a dominant win over North Queensland in the Grand Final replay. The Storm have the fourth best defence in 2018.
Key MatchupJayden Brailey v Cameron Smith: Brailey is one of the best young hookers in the game and is starting to reach his potential. The Wolf would like to see him run more from dummy-half, but he plays above his weight and is one of the better defenders in his position. Smiith has made a steady start to the 2018 season and his relationship with Brodie Croft is still a work in progress. He had better attacking statistics in the win over the Cowboys and is making a conscious effort to take the pressure off young Croft and help organise the Storm’s attack.
Stats That Matter– Cronulla are 1-2 ATS with a 3-0 under number while Melbourne are 2-1 ATS with a 2-1 over record.
– Melbourne are 22-12 all-time in their matchup with Cronulla but the Sharks have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, including the 2016 Grand Final.
– The Storm have won 4 of the last 6 meetings at Shark Park.
– The last six Sharks-Storm meetings have all failed to break 32 combined points, averaging 25.7ppg.
– Cronulla have covered just 2 of their last 13 at Shark Park with a 23-14 under record at the ground since 2015 but have covered 4 of 6 as a home underdog over that timeframe.
– The Sharks are 15-9 under at night at Shark Park.
– Cronulla are 8-16 ATS at home off a win (16-8 under) while they are 2-9 ATS (9-2 under) at home off a double digit win.
– The Storm have covered 11 of their last 14 interstate games while they are 9-4 ATS as an interstate favourite under a converted try.
– The Storm are 11-6 under after scoring 30 points.
– Melbourne have covered 8 of their last 9 interstate after conceding 14 or fewer.
– Melbourne are 22-12 all-time in their matchup with Cronulla but the Sharks have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, including the 2016 Grand Final.
– The Storm have won 4 of the last 6 meetings at Shark Park.
– The last six Sharks-Storm meetings have all failed to break 32 combined points, averaging 25.7ppg.
– Cronulla have covered just 2 of their last 13 at Shark Park with a 23-14 under record at the ground since 2015 but have covered 4 of 6 as a home underdog over that timeframe.
– The Sharks are 15-9 under at night at Shark Park.
– Cronulla are 8-16 ATS at home off a win (16-8 under) while they are 2-9 ATS (9-2 under) at home off a double digit win.
– The Storm have covered 11 of their last 14 interstate games while they are 9-4 ATS as an interstate favourite under a converted try.
– The Storm are 11-6 under after scoring 30 points.
– Melbourne have covered 8 of their last 9 interstate after conceding 14 or fewer.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is always keen to play the unders whenever these sides clash. The last six Sharks-Storm meetings have all failed to break 32 combined points and The Wolf is expecting another low-scoring grinding affair, with the Storm getting home in a close one.
How It’s Shaping UpMelbourne by 4
Recommended BetsBest: Under 36.5 ($1.88)
Value: Melbourne 1-12 ($3)
First Tryscorer: Josh Addo-Carr
Value: Melbourne 1-12 ($3)
First Tryscorer: Josh Addo-Carr
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