Roma v Shakhtar: Back narrow win for Italians

Roma 1.70 v Shakhtar 5.30; The Draw 4.40
Tuesday, 19:45
Live On BT Sport 3

Roma yet to concede at home in Champions League

Roma are 2-1 down on aggregate in this last-16 tie, but the away goal they scored in the Ukraine could prove to be vital.

Eusebio Di Francesco's team went a goal up at Shakhtar through Cengiz Under, only for the home side to fight back and win the first leg with two second-half goals. Roma are still rated as the narrow favourites to progress in the To Qualify market at 1.91, having been unbeaten at home in Champions League this season, despite facing tough opposition that included Atletico Madrid and Chelsea (W2 D1).

Currently third in Serie A, Roma did not concede in any of their home Champions League games and Di Francesco will be hoping for more of the same in Tuesday night. They kept a clean sheet in a 3-0 home win over Torino at the weekend, which followed an impressive 4-2 away win over the then league leaders Napoli, in the previous set of fixtures.

Edin Dzeko and Federico Fazio were both absent for the win over Torino on Friday, as they served domestic suspensions, leaving them fresh for this crucial match. The injured Rick Karsdrop is the only player unavailable to Roma.

Shakhtar have already eliminated Serie A opposition

Shakhtar's win over Roma was one of five successive victories since they returned to action following the Ukranian winter break.

Top of the Premier League with a six point lead, Shakhtar have already caused a shock in the Champions League this season. Paulo Fonseca's side beat both Napoli and Manchester City at home to qualify for the knockout stages in second place in their group, at the expense of Roma's Serie A rivals.

These results have seen Fonseca linked with potential managerial roles at Arsenal and Everton. A colourful character who arrived at the press conference after the win over Manchester City dressed as Zorro, the 45-year old won the league and cup double in his first season at Shakhtar, having got the job after winning the Portuguese Cup with Braga.

Sergey Krivtsov picked up an injury in the first leg and is not expected to be available. Maksim Malyshev and Darijo Srna are also sidelined.

Roma to get the win they need

Roma are the favourites at 1.70, with the draw at 4.40 and Shakhtar out at 1.70.

The home side are the worthy favourites considering their record at the Stadio Olimpico and Shakhtar's results on Italian soil. Shakhtar have lost seven of their last ten matches in Italy and were defeated by both Manchester City and Napoli away from home.

They failed to score in either of these games and Roma can be backed at 3.20 to win to nil, which may be a better bet than the rather slim odds for a victory. Another option is the draw half-time/Roma full-time double result at 5.00, with Shakhtar having not conceded in the first-half of either of their Champions League defeats this season.

Italians can keep things tight at home

Over 2.5 goals is the favourite at 1.64, ahead of unders at 2.40.

Shakhtar's last five Champions League games have seen three goals or more, which of course includes the 2-1 win over Roma in the opening leg. However, Roma's home form doesn't seem to have been considered in this equation. Only the 3-0 win over Chelsea broke the 2.5 goals barrier, with their matches against Atletico Madrid and Qarabag producing just a single goal.

Roma need a clean sheet and there could be value in backing them to keep it tight.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back the draw half-time/Roma full-time at 5.00

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.40