Saturday Championship 3pm Kick-Offs: Boro look value to extend good run over Bees

Brentford 2.50 v Middlesbrough 3.15; The Draw 3.40

As the least fancied team of the two to win in the Match Odds market I have to put up Middlesbrough as my best bet of the day, odds of 3.10 seem incredibly generous about an in-form team playing against a club that they have an excellent record against.

It's no secret that Boro are the team I support but I never let the heart rule the head and I promise you I'm not starting here. I've always liked Middlesbrough on the road; their defensive set-up and ability to hit teams on the break at speed is very well suited to playing teams away from home.

And against a Brentford team that like to come at you, then I can see Boro having a very good day. Of course, they'll need to take their chances, but there's nothing in their recent form to suggest that they won't.

In fact Tony Pulis' men have scored at least three goals in four of their last five games, and for a team that often found it a struggle in front of goal that's a massive improvement. They are unbeaten in five games, are firmly in the play-off picture, and they are playing with lots of confidence.

The Bees are 11th in the table with no chance of reaching the play-offs, so you do have to question just how motivated they'll be for this game, and after losing three of their last four they're not exactly in great form.

Consider also that since 2014 Brentford have faced Middlesbrough seven times without winning once - Boro have won six and drawn one - and that at Griffin Park they've lost five on the spin against Saturday's opponents, then an away win looks well worth backing.

Over 2.5 Goals represents a spot of value

Leeds 2.06 v Sheff Wed 4.00; The Draw 3.60

The season is effectively over for both Leeds and Sheff Wed, though the Owls won't be quite in 'beach' mode given they're just eight points above the drop zone. They'll probably only need another three or four points however to be guaranteed to be playing Championship football next season.

As for Leeds, they've won just one of their last 14 games in all competitions and have gone from being genuine play-off contenders to mid-table mediocracy in seemingly no time.

Mind you, Sheff Wed have won just one of their last 13 Championship games so this is hardly a clash between two teams full on confidence.

Because of their respective form it's impossible to make a case for either team winning; I can't have Leeds at 2.06, and I'd want a better price about the Owls if I'm being honest. And backing the draw in a football match is one of my least favoured approaches.

So I'm going to take a chance on goals being scored here because that's how recent games have gone. Both can't seem to stop conceding, while neither are in a drought in front of goal.

A total of 18 goals have been scored in the Owls' last five league games, at an average of over 3.5 per match, while in Leeds' last eight games a total of 27 goals have been scored, which is just shy of 3.5 per match.

And at Elland Road United's last five games have witnessed 20 goals, which is an average of exactly four per match. We can back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.20 here, and purely on recent trends that looks a spot of value.

Home sick Black Cats to lose again

Norwich 1.88 v Reading 4.80; The Draw 3.50

This is almost the exact same make-up of the Leeds game in that Norwich are stuck in mid-table and effectively have nothing to play for, while Reading are very unlikely to go down, though being just six points above the drop zone they won't want to relax just yet.

And in terms of Match Odds then I'm thinking along exactly the same lines as the Leeds game too. Norwich are without a win in seven games, so there's no way I'd want to be taking an odds-on price about them winning this match when they have virtually nothing riding on it, while it's difficult to build a strong case for Reading winning given they are now eight games without a victory.

So the advice is to repeat the wager in the Leeds game, and back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.20. Again, based on recent results it's a price that looks very good value.

Four of Reading's last five away games have witnessed at least three goals (and 3.2 on average), and the only one that didn't witnessed two goals.

As for the Canaries they've had a couple of goalless draws recently admittedly, but five of their last seven matches have witnessed both teams getting on the scoresheet, and just a few weeks ago they drew 2-2 with Wolves while last week they lost 4-3 at Hull in a seven-goal thriller.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Middlesbrough @ 3.15 to beat Brentford (best bet)

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 in Leeds v Sheff Wed

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 in Norwich v Reading