Swansea v Tottenham
Saturday 12:15,
Live on BT Sport 1
Match Odds: Swansea 9.00, Tottenham 1.50, The Draw 4.60.

Is it Tottenham's year?

Last week's Champions League exit at the hands of Juventus means Tottenham will perhaps place more emphasis upon the FA Cup, as Mauricio Pochettino attempts to win his first trophy as a manager.
Pochettino has consistently taken a somewhat ambivalent attitude towards this competition, insisting that an FA Cup win wouldn't make a major difference to the future of Spurs. But for a club who have come to be regarded as somewhat flimsy, tending to impress without converting positive displays into outright success, winning their first trophy in a decade shouldn't be underestimated. With some of the big guns already out, Spurs have a real chance of glory this season - and would have the advantage of playing both semi-final and final 'at home'.
Pochettino's major concern here is the absence of Harry Kane, who departed in last weekend's 4-1 defeat to Bournemouth with what initially appeared a serious ankle injury. It seems likely Kane will only miss around a month, rather than the rest of the season, which means it'll be a race against time for him to feature in the semi-final, should Tottenham reach that stage.

Son or Llorente to replace Kane?

In his absence, Pochettino has a decision to make. There are two obvious solutions: either he can push Son Heung-min into the centre-forward role, where he impressed after Kane's departure last weekend, or he can call upon Fernando Llorente. They're two very different options: Son will run the channels and stretch the play, while Llorente offers more of a traditional centre-forward option. He'd be up against his old side, and scored against the Swans at the Liberty Stadium earlier this season. Son, though, seems the better option here, offering more goalscoring potential and probably fitting into Tottenham's overall system better.
Pochettino also has a problem at left-back, where both Ben Davies and Danny Rose are considered doubtful. Davies, the Welshman, seems more likely to make the trip to south Wales.
Otherwise, this should be a strong side from Tottenham, though it's also an opportunity to give a run-out to players who need minutes. Pochettino might deploy both Lucas Moura and Erik Lamela on the flanks, perhaps with Dele Alli or Christian Eriksen dropping into a deeper role alongside Victor Wanyama. Centre-back Juan Foyth may even get an opportunity at centre-back, though Davinson Sanchez will probably be preferred. Toby Alderweireld is available for selection, but it might be too soon for him.

Both Ayews out

Carlos Carvalhal also has selection problems. He's without both Andre Ayew, who is cup-tied, and his brother Jordan, who is suspended. Also out are Leroy Fer, Leon Britton, Andy King and Renato Sanches, which leaves the home side somewhat short of quality in midfield.
Carvalhal is likely to stick with the three-man defence which shut out Huddersfield last weekend, despite having just 19% of possession. Mike van der Hoorn, Federico Fernandez and new England cap Alfie Mawson form a good trio, and are equipped for playing against the power of their old teammate Llorente, or the speed of Son.
Ki Sung-Yeung and Sam Clucas may play as a midfield duo, with Martin Olsson and ex-Spurs man Kyle Naughton down the flanks, although Tom Carroll could come into the side to complete a three-man midfield.
That decision will dictate whether Swansea play a front three to occupy Spurs' full-backs, or a two-man strikeforce. Either way, Tammy Abraham should start in the absence of the Ayew brothers. Wayne Routledge and Nathan Dyer, long-standing Swansea wingers, will compete with Luciano Narsingh to start in the former. If it's two upfront, one may be fielded in support of Abraham, but it's tough to predict Carvalhal's precise thinking with so many enforced changes.
All things considered, I think the smart move here is backing few goals. Spurs are without their first-choice centre-forward, and while Son and Llorente are good back-up options, playing upfront alone against a deep three-man defence will be tough. Equally, I don't fancy Swansea to score many without the Ayews. I'm going to be bold, and back Under 1.5 goals at 3.80.

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

The Swans have been flying recently, losing just one of their last 14 competitive matches, winning their last seven at home. In fact, their last home defeat was when they welcomed Spurs to the Liberty Stadium in January. Out of the Champions League, Mauricio Pochettino will now be looking to get his side into the semi-finals and hopefully FA Cup glory in May.
Tottenham are unbeaten in their last nine on the road, winning four of them, including back-to-back wins at Palace and Bournemouth. Their 2-0 win here in January will also give them the confidence to believe they can get the job done.
Much will depend on the team news but I think Spurs are a bit short at 1.48 and that allows a bet on Swansea in the Asian Handicap markets. I will be looking to back Swansea on the Asian Handicap +1 & +1.25 at anything better than 2.00, meaning the visitors would have to win by two goals to lose. If I can’t get that then I will drop to the +1 handicap at around 2.20.
RECOMMENDED BETS
Michael says: Back Under 1.5 goals at 3.80
Alan says: Back Swansea +1 & +1.25 in the Asian Handicap market at 2.00 or better

0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook

Post a comment

 
Top