Poland v Senegal: Lions of Taranga can get off to a roaring start

Poland v Senegal
Tuesday 19 June 16:00
Live on ITV

Poles could struggle if Lewandowski flops again

Appearing in their first World Cup Finals since 2006, having eased through qualification, with their star striker, Robert Lewandowski, scoring 16 times, Group H top seeds, Poland, were the favourites to progress from this tricky group when the market first opened but they've since been gazumped by Colombia and I can see why.

The Poles were semi-finalists in both 1974 and 1982 but their record in the competition has been poor since and they've lost six of their last eight matches at the Finals.

With Lewandowski leading the line, Poland have an obvious threat but are they too reliant on their talisman? And will he perform for the first time in a major international tournament? The Poles fared well enough at the Euros two years ago, navigating their way out of the group before beating Switzerland on penalties and losing to the eventual winners, Portugal, on penalties in the quarter-finals, but Lewandowski notched just once in five games and he found the net only once in 2012, when Poland co-hosted the Euros but failed to get out of the group.

Poland have warmed-up for the tournament with a 2-2 draw with Chile and a 4-0 win over Lithuania.

Senegal a force to be reckoned with

The Lions of Taranga caused quite a stir in their only other World Cup Finals appearance 16 years ago - beating the holders France in their opening game before going all the way to the quarter-finals where they lost to another surprise package - Turkey.

Managed by their captain of 2002, Aliou Cissé, Senegal qualified without losing a game and with the likes of Kalidou Koulibaly of Napoli in defence and Liverpool's Sadio Mane up front, they're a force to be reckoned with.

In Senegal's last two friendlies before the Finals, they lost 2-1 to Croatia before beating South Korea 2-0.

Key defenders the difference for both teams

The first meeting of these two sides could turn out to be a cracker. With Colombia favourites to qualify from the group and Japan strongly fancied to finish Rock Bottom, this could very easily transpire to be the game that decides which of these two progresses and it's hard to split them.

Both teams might be satisfied with a point apiece and the draw at 9/4 makes more appeal than Poland at less than 6/4 but I'm happy to chance the Senegalese at a juicy 5/2.

The key to this match could be the presence of one defender and the absence of another. In Koulibaly, Senegal have a truly world class defender, capable of shutting out Polish talisman, Lewandowski, whereas the Poles are highly likely to be without their defensive stalwart, Kamil Glik.

The Monaco man injured himself attempting a bicycle kick in training, and he was expected to miss the tournament entirely to start with. He's said to be improving rapidly but he's unlikely to be ready for this match and with the likes of Sadio Mané, Diafra Sakho, Moussa Konaté and Moussa Sow all fit and at Cissé's disposal, the Poles may miss the big man at the back, however Cissé choses to line-up his attack.

Poland were leaky enough in qualifying - conceding in eight of their ten matches - and it's hard to see an energetic Senegal being kept out without the influential Glik in defence. Taking a chance on the outsiders makes sense in a tight and hard-to-predict opener.

Goals the value play in hard to call encounter

Under 2 ½ is a strong favourite in the Over-Under 2 ½ Goals market and I can see why. With so much on the line, a tight and tense affair wouldn't be a surprise but given the Poles conceded in each of their last eight World Cup Finals matches and so many times in qualification, playing Over 2 ½ Goals at getting on for 6/4 makes some appeal.

Simarlarly, in a match that looks very hard to predict, I'd prefer to back Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at odds-against but I'm happy to keep things simple and just plump for a Senegal win.

Same Game Multi

If Senegal are going to win, there's a very god chance their main man, Mane, will find the onion bag so my idea of the best bet on the brand new Same Game Multi feature on the Sportsbook is Senegal to win, Mané to score and Over 2 ½ Goals at just over 10/1 but why not pick your own? Click on the Same Game Multi tab at the top of the market and pick two or more selections to build your wager. Good luck!

Key Opta Stats for Poland v Senegal

Poland are unbeaten in their three games against African opposition at the World Cup (W1 D2). These three games have produced only one goal. The draw is 3.30.

This is Poland’s eighth World Cup, but their first appearance since 2006. They last reached the knockout stages in 1986, failing to advance from the group stages in each of their last two appearances (2002 and 2006). You can lay Poland to qualify from Group H at 1.70.

Poland have lost six of their last eight World Cup games (W2). They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in those last eight games, their last shut-out dating back to their 1- 0 win against Portugal in 1986. Senegal are 3.50 to win.

Poland have won only one of their seven opening games at the World Cup (D3 L3), a 3-2 win vs Argentina in 1974. In fact, they haven’t scored a single goal in their last five openers. Poland are 1.69 in the Draw No Bet market.

Senegal have qualified for their second World Cup, after their inaugural participation in 2002 where they reached the quarter-finals before being eliminated by Turkey. They are 6.60 to reach the last eight again.

Senegal were unbeaten in their only previous group phase appearance at the World Cup (W1 D2), which included a victory in the opening game against defending champions France (1-0). They are 2.42 in the Draw No Bet market.

Robert Lewandowski was the top scorer in the 2018 European World Cup qualifiers with 16 goals. He netted 57% of Poland’s goals (16 out of 28). The only other Pole to score more than one goal was Kamil Grosicki (3). Lewandowski is 2.10 to score.

Diafra Sakho was the only Senegal player to score more than one goal in the third round of CAF qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup. Sakho is 3.40 to find the net.

This is Adam Nawałka’s second major tournament as Poland manager after taking his country to the quarter-finals of Euro 2016, a tournament in which Poland remained unbeaten (W2 D3). He also played in five of Poland’s six games at the 1978 World Cup. Poland are 2.40 to win.