The NRL season stops for the week as we turn our attention to representative rugby league, headlined by State Of Origin Game 2. The Wolf previews the three upcoming Test matches – Papua New Guinea v Fiji, Samoa v Tonga and the historical Test between England and New Zealand in Denver.
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| Papua New Guinea v Fiji Saturday, June 23, 4pm Campbelltown Stadium | Best: Papua New Guinea +14 ($1.90) Value: Papua New Guinea ($4.50) |
Recent FormPapua New Guinea enjoyed their best World Cup when winning all three pool games against Wales, Ireland and the United States before they were soundly defeated by England in the quarter finals. The Kumuls had three lead-in matches to the World Cup, losing to the PM’s XIII and Australia while they defeated Fiji. Fiji enjoyed a memorable World Cup where they reached the semis. The Bati scored 168 points in their three pool games against Italy, the United States and Wales before they stunned New Zealand 4-2 in a thrilling World Cup quarter final. A 54-6 loss to Australia in the semi should take nothing away from their spectacular tournament.
Stats That Matter
– Papua New Guinea and Fiji have played six internationals dating back to 1993 with the Kumuls winning four.
– The teams have played the mid-season Test in two of the last three years with PNG winning 24-22 in 2016 while Fiji won 22-10 in 2015.
– Three of the last five meetings have tallied 32 or fewer points.
– PNG have won two of three mid-year Tests while Fiji have won just one of three, losing the last two to Tonga and PNG.
– Fiji have a side consisting of seven NRL regulars while a further four have NRL experience.
– Fiji have won six of their last nine internationals against non-Tier 1 nations while PNG have won six straight.
– Papua New Guinea and Fiji have played six internationals dating back to 1993 with the Kumuls winning four.
– The teams have played the mid-season Test in two of the last three years with PNG winning 24-22 in 2016 while Fiji won 22-10 in 2015.
– Three of the last five meetings have tallied 32 or fewer points.
– PNG have won two of three mid-year Tests while Fiji have won just one of three, losing the last two to Tonga and PNG.
– Fiji have a side consisting of seven NRL regulars while a further four have NRL experience.
– Fiji have won six of their last nine internationals against non-Tier 1 nations while PNG have won six straight.
Final Thoughts
The line of 14 looks inflated here in a Test sure to have plenty of passion from both sides. Both teams have key troops out, with Fiji missing Api Koroisau, Viliame Kikau and Taane Milne from their 2017 World Cup squad, while PNG will be without the likes of Nene Macdonald and David Mead. The Wolf has his concerns around the Fiji halves pairing of Jarryd Hayne and Henry Raiwalui in the absence of Koroisau, while the flashy brilliance of Watson Boas and James Segeyaro will ensure that the Kumuls will be able to test Fiji’s defence throughout the 80 minutes. The +14 for the Kumuls looks a great bet and an upset isn’t out of the question.
The line of 14 looks inflated here in a Test sure to have plenty of passion from both sides. Both teams have key troops out, with Fiji missing Api Koroisau, Viliame Kikau and Taane Milne from their 2017 World Cup squad, while PNG will be without the likes of Nene Macdonald and David Mead. The Wolf has his concerns around the Fiji halves pairing of Jarryd Hayne and Henry Raiwalui in the absence of Koroisau, while the flashy brilliance of Watson Boas and James Segeyaro will ensure that the Kumuls will be able to test Fiji’s defence throughout the 80 minutes. The +14 for the Kumuls looks a great bet and an upset isn’t out of the question.
How It’s Shaping UpPNG by 2
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| Samoa v Tonga Saturday, June 23, 7:10pm Campbelltown Stadium | Best: Tonga 13+ ($1.72) |
Recent Form
Samoa were terribly disappointing at the last World Cup where they lost convincingly to Tonga and New Zealand in the pool games before a draw with Scotland. A 46-0 quarter final defeat to Australia finished off a disappointing tournament. They struggled to defeat a NSW Country U23s team in the leadup to the tournament. Tonga entered a new era of Rugby League at the World Cup with a semi-final run that was the story of the tournament. Tonga defeated New Zealand in the pool stage, along with Samoa and Scotland, before defeating Lebanon in the quarters. Tonga pushed England all the way in a memorable World Cup semi. Tonga defeated Italy in their only lead-up.
Samoa were terribly disappointing at the last World Cup where they lost convincingly to Tonga and New Zealand in the pool games before a draw with Scotland. A 46-0 quarter final defeat to Australia finished off a disappointing tournament. They struggled to defeat a NSW Country U23s team in the leadup to the tournament. Tonga entered a new era of Rugby League at the World Cup with a semi-final run that was the story of the tournament. Tonga defeated New Zealand in the pool stage, along with Samoa and Scotland, before defeating Lebanon in the quarters. Tonga pushed England all the way in a memorable World Cup semi. Tonga defeated Italy in their only lead-up.
Stats That Matter
– Samoa and Tonga have met 19 times with Samoa victorious in 11.
– The teams have met five times since 2010 with Samoa winning three and Tonga two.
– Samoa defeated Tonga in the mid-season Polynesian Cup in both 2015 and 2016 before Tonga took victory during the 2017 World Cup.
– Samoa have won three of five mid-season Tests with the wins over Tonga along with a win over Fiji in 2014 while they lost to England last season and Tonga in 2013.
– Tonga have won two of five with their 2-1 record v Samoa while they defeated PNG in 2014 and lost to Fiji in 2017.
– Tonga have won 9 of their last 14 against non-Tier 1 nations while Samoa are 6-6-1 over the same timeframe.
– The last seven Tonga internationals have all topped 38 points while Samoa have played in six of seven that have hit the 38-point mark.
– Samoa have 12 regular first graders while the entire squad has NRL experience while Tonga have 17 players who have been regulars in the top grade this season.
– Samoa and Tonga have met 19 times with Samoa victorious in 11.
– The teams have met five times since 2010 with Samoa winning three and Tonga two.
– Samoa defeated Tonga in the mid-season Polynesian Cup in both 2015 and 2016 before Tonga took victory during the 2017 World Cup.
– Samoa have won three of five mid-season Tests with the wins over Tonga along with a win over Fiji in 2014 while they lost to England last season and Tonga in 2013.
– Tonga have won two of five with their 2-1 record v Samoa while they defeated PNG in 2014 and lost to Fiji in 2017.
– Tonga have won 9 of their last 14 against non-Tier 1 nations while Samoa are 6-6-1 over the same timeframe.
– The last seven Tonga internationals have all topped 38 points while Samoa have played in six of seven that have hit the 38-point mark.
– Samoa have 12 regular first graders while the entire squad has NRL experience while Tonga have 17 players who have been regulars in the top grade this season.
Final Thoughts
It’s hard to go past Tonga after their brilliant showing at the World Cup, and with the likes of Jason Taumalolo and Andrew Fifita in their squad. Meanwhile, Samoa only managed a draw and two losses in the group stage of the World Cup, and were very fortunate to reach the knockout stage where they were hammered 46-0 by Australia in the quarter-finals. The inclusion of Anthony Milford should improve Samoa’s chances, but he has been struggling for form with the Brisbane Broncos this season. The Samoan pack is also missing some big names from their World Cup squad, with Junior Paulo, Herman Ese’ese, Josh Papalii and Lesson Ah Mau all unavailable. Tonga is on the up after their impressive World Cup campaign and should be too strong here.
It’s hard to go past Tonga after their brilliant showing at the World Cup, and with the likes of Jason Taumalolo and Andrew Fifita in their squad. Meanwhile, Samoa only managed a draw and two losses in the group stage of the World Cup, and were very fortunate to reach the knockout stage where they were hammered 46-0 by Australia in the quarter-finals. The inclusion of Anthony Milford should improve Samoa’s chances, but he has been struggling for form with the Brisbane Broncos this season. The Samoan pack is also missing some big names from their World Cup squad, with Junior Paulo, Herman Ese’ese, Josh Papalii and Lesson Ah Mau all unavailable. Tonga is on the up after their impressive World Cup campaign and should be too strong here.
How It’s Shaping Up
Tonga by 16
Tonga by 16
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| England v New Zealand Sunday, June 24, 6am Sports Authority Filed at Mile High, Denver | Best: England ($1.72) Value: England 1-12 ($3.30) |
Recent Form
England enjoyed a strong 2017 under the stewardship of Wayne Bennett with five wins and two losses with both defeats strong performances against Australia. England kicked off the year with a 30-10 win over Samoa in the mid-year Test before sweeping to the World Cup final with wins over Lebanon, France, PNG and Tonga and then holding Australia to just six points in the decider. New Zealand’s 2017 was so poor it saw coach David Kidwell sacked and a review of the NZRL that also claimed its chief executive. The Kiwis lost 30-12 in the final Anzac Test before losing to Tonga in their pool and then Fiji in the semis to exit the World Cup they hosted in the quarters.
England enjoyed a strong 2017 under the stewardship of Wayne Bennett with five wins and two losses with both defeats strong performances against Australia. England kicked off the year with a 30-10 win over Samoa in the mid-year Test before sweeping to the World Cup final with wins over Lebanon, France, PNG and Tonga and then holding Australia to just six points in the decider. New Zealand’s 2017 was so poor it saw coach David Kidwell sacked and a review of the NZRL that also claimed its chief executive. The Kiwis lost 30-12 in the final Anzac Test before losing to Tonga in their pool and then Fiji in the semis to exit the World Cup they hosted in the quarters.
Stats That Matter
– New Zealand have won 7 of the last 11 Tests against England.
– Five of the last six meetings have been decided by seven points or fewer with nine straight Tests failing to break 38 points.
– The countries last met at a neutral venue in 2008 with New Zealand winning 32-22 in Brisbane.
– England have won 10 of their last 15 Tests, including 6 of their last 8 outside of the UK.
– England have scored 16 or more in their last nine Tests not played against Australia.
– New Zealand have won just 3 of their last 12 Tests and just 2 of their last 9 against Tier 1 nations.
– New Zealand have won just 2 of their last 10 away from home.
– This is Michael Maguire’s first Test as a coach but he is 5-5 all-time v Wayne Bennett.
– The New Zealand team is made up of all NRL players while the England team has five players with NRL experience while the rest play Super League.
– New Zealand have won 7 of the last 11 Tests against England.
– Five of the last six meetings have been decided by seven points or fewer with nine straight Tests failing to break 38 points.
– The countries last met at a neutral venue in 2008 with New Zealand winning 32-22 in Brisbane.
– England have won 10 of their last 15 Tests, including 6 of their last 8 outside of the UK.
– England have scored 16 or more in their last nine Tests not played against Australia.
– New Zealand have won just 3 of their last 12 Tests and just 2 of their last 9 against Tier 1 nations.
– New Zealand have won just 2 of their last 10 away from home.
– This is Michael Maguire’s first Test as a coach but he is 5-5 all-time v Wayne Bennett.
– The New Zealand team is made up of all NRL players while the England team has five players with NRL experience while the rest play Super League.
Final Thoughts
England look like the way to go here. New Zealand have named seven debutants in their squad, and will be missing the experience and class of players like Shaun Johnson, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Tohu Harris. England could have very easily beaten Australia in last year’s World Cup Final and should be too strong for an understrength Kiwis side. The Wolf says to back England 1-12, with the Kiwi rookies sure to put up a fight.
England look like the way to go here. New Zealand have named seven debutants in their squad, and will be missing the experience and class of players like Shaun Johnson, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Tohu Harris. England could have very easily beaten Australia in last year’s World Cup Final and should be too strong for an understrength Kiwis side. The Wolf says to back England 1-12, with the Kiwi rookies sure to put up a fight.
How It’s Shaping Up
England by 6
England by 6
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