France v Peru: Entertaining match in prospect as Peru seek to make up for bad luck

France v Peru
Thursday, 16:00
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France got off to a winning start in Group C with a 2-1 victory over Australia but it was hard-fought and not altogether convincing as they had to rely on a contentious penalty from Antoine Griezmann and an own goal from Paul Pogba's deflected shot.

The talent is there in abundance but Didier Deschamps needs to find the right combinations.

On Saturday he chose Ousmane Dembele and Corentin Tolisso over Olivier Giroud and Blaise Matuidi and did not risk senior full-backs Djibril Sidibe and Benjamin Mendy because of injury, selecting Benjamin Pavard and Lucas Hernandez instead. Changes in any of those positions would not be a surprise.

Fortune does not favour the brave

Making their first appearance at the World Cup finals for 36 years, Peru showed no fear and plenty of attacking flair and ambition in their opening match against Denmark and were most unfortunate to lose 1-0, having had 17 shots and missed a penalty when the match was goalless.

Ricardo Gareca's side can take plenty of heart from that performance, although the result leaves them in the difficult position of probably needing to take something here against the Group C favourites.

The most likely change from the starting line-up against Denmark is that Paolo Guerrerowill take over from Jefferson Farfan in the lone striker role.

Attacks to hold sway

Judging by the way Peru attacked their first match, this could develop into an open and entertaining affair. Having been so unfortunate against Denmark, there seems little point in Gareca's side trying to play a different way now and they might as well go down fighting if that is to be their fate.

The forward players were all excellent in the opener, particularly Andre Carrillo and Christian Cueva, whose penalty miss was a black mark in an otherwise bright display.

The biggest issue for Gareca might be convincing his players they can win at this level, but they should have no doubts after Saturday's performance. If they can reach the same standard, they look capable of causing France plenty of problems.

France would probably appreciate their opponents coming on to them more than Australia did, which is where the danger lies for Peru.

Since France's 1-0 extra-time defeat to Portugal in the Euro 2016 final, Spain are the only team to have scored against Deschamps' side without reply and it is difficult for most sides to escape unscathed.

France have won 15 of the 19 games in which they have scored since the Euros, which justifies them being strong favourites at 1.58, but they often live dangerously.

Both sides have scored in 13 of those 19 matches and that looks a good option here at 21/20 with Betfair Sportsbook.

Need for a positive result

If both sides to score is the right call, there has to be a good chance of over 2.5 goals. That outcome is outsider at 2.06 and most of the support comes from France's figures, with six of their last nine matches having gone over 2.5 goals.

Eight of Peru's last 10 games have had under 2.5 goals but the impression of them as a rigidly defensive side was swept away by Saturday's vibrant display and their need for a positive result seems likely to drive them forward again.

Using the new Same Game Multi feature in the Sportsbook, you could even try over 2.5 goals in the match and both teams to score in the first half at odds of 5.8.

Key Opta Stats for France v Peru

France and Peru’s only previous encounter was a friendly in April 1982. The South American side won 1-0 at the Parc des Princes. Peru are 7.20 to win.

The last South American team to beat France at the World Cup were Argentina in 1978. Since then, France are unbeaten in their last seven World Cup fixtures against CONMEBOL opposition (W3 D4), with three of the last four games ending goalless. The draw is 4.20.

France have kept a clean sheet in each of their last six World Cup games against South American sides. Brazil’s Careca is the last CONMEBOL player to score past France in the competition, back in the 1986 World Cup quarter-final. Under 2.5 goals is 1.90.

Peru are winless in their last five World Cup encounters against European opposition (D2 L3), their last win coming against Scotland in 1978. A France win is 1.57.

Peru are winless in their last seven World Cup matches (D2 L5). France are 2.34 to win half-time/full-time.

South American side Peru mustered 17 shots in their opening game against Denmark, but still failed to find the net in a 0-1 defeat. Under 1.5 goals is 3.55.

After consecutive defeats vs Mexico and South Africa in 2010, France are unbeaten in their last four group stage games in World Cup finals (W3 D1 L0). The draw half-time/France full-time double result is 4.10.

Antoine Griezmann has been directly involved in nine of France’s last 13 goals scored in major tournaments (World Cup and European Championships), with seven goals and two assists. Griezmann is 2.40 to score.

Having become France’s youngest ever player in a major tournament in their opening match, Kylian Mbappé is also looking to become their youngest ever goalscorer in a World Cup or European Championships, with David Trezeguet vs Saudi Arabia in 1998 currently holding the record (20y 246d). Mbappe is 2.62 to find the net.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back both teams to score at 21/20 with Betfair Sportsbook