Serbia v Switzerland
Friday, 19:00
Live on BBC One

Eagles need to find shooting boots

They needed a superb Aleksandar Kolarov free-kick to secure three points, but Serbia were quietly impressive in their Group E opener against Costa Rica. Mladen Krstajić named an attacking line-up for that game, handing hotly-tipped Sergej Milinković-Savić a first competitive start in the No.10 role, and must have been delighted to see his charges carve out a number of good chances.
The Eagles could easily have finished two or three goals to the good, with Aleksandar Mitrović chiefly responsible for failing to make the game same. The forward ought to have been in confident mood after his hat-trick against Bolivia, yet delayed at crucial moments in front of goal and could not find a way past Keylor Navas. Against stronger opposition, Krstajić will be well aware that such profligacy could be costly.

Gritty Swiss eye last 16

It always looked likely to be advantageous to face Brazil first, before Neymar could get up to speed, and so it proved for Switzerland on Sunday night. La Nati were overrun for 20 minutes but steadied themselves and worked their way back into the game in impressive fashion, eventually drawing level through Steven Zuber. And while their methods weren't always pretty, they were certainly effective as the Seleção were frustrated.
That result could change the way Switzerland approach this match, with a draw in Kaliningrad probably edging them closer to a last-16 spot. That is surely a good thing for Vladimir Petković, whose side looks better suited to grinding than to racking up goals - although there's a decent chance they'll be a touch more expansive than they were in Rostov.

Draw would favour La Nati

There doesn't look to be a great deal between the sides: Serbia have the greater creative ability, but Switzerland's defensive record (11 clean sheets in 15 games) is not to be sniffed at. La Nati have also lost just once in 23 matches (0-2 vs Portugal), and as things stand I'm happy with my antepost recommendation of backing them to make it out of the group with Brazil.
This game will not be easy for the Swiss, for Serbia will likely feel that they need to pick up maximum points. But Petković's charges have shown at the last two major tournaments that they can plot a course to the last 16, and the draw holds some appeal at 3.10.

Don't expect a thriller

Take the last eight games played by each of these nations (so 16 games in total) and only three have gone over the 2.5-goal line. Little wonder, then, that the unders is as short as 1.55 on Friday night.
But the frugality of the sides does provide us with a way to squeeze more value from our prediction of a draw: given a wild 2-2 is unlikely, we can split our stakes between 0-0 and 1-1 for odds of around 3.60.

Zuber in form

Steven Zuber has four goals in his last six Switzerland starts and impressed against Brazil. The winger is 5.40 to double his World Cup tally.

Key Opta Stats for Serbia v Switzerland

This will be the first meeting between Serbia (as an independent nation) and Switzerland. They faced the Swiss 13 times as Yugoslavia (W6 D5 L2). The draw is 3.15.
Just one of the 13 meetings between Yugoslavia and Switzerland was at the World Cup, with Yugoslavia winning 3-0 in a group stage game in 1950. Serbia are 2.88 to win.
The Swiss have lost just one of their last four World Cup games against fellow European nations. A Switzerland victory is 2.96.
Serbia won their opening match against Costa Rica – they have qualified for the next round on three of the four occasions they’ve won their first match at the World Cup, doing so as Yugoslavia in 1930, 1954 and 1998; their only failure to qualify was in 1950. Serbia are 1.83to qualify from Group E.
Switzerland have lost just one of their last 23 matches (W16 D6), a 2-0 defeat to Portugal in a World Cup qualifier in October 2017. They are 2.02 in the Draw No Bet market.
Branislav Ivanovic broke Dejan Stankovic’s record for appearances for Serbia in their opening match against Costa Rica – he now has 104 caps. Ivanovic is 11.00 to score.
Steven Zuber has been involved in six goals in his last six international starts for Switzerland (4 goals, 2 assists) and scored their equaliser against Brazil. Zuber is 5.50 to find the net.
Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored 14 goals in his last 17 starts for Serbia. He's 3.00 to add to his tally.
RECOMMENDED BETS
Dutch back 0-0 and 1-1 at 3.60

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