Denmark v Australia: Big chance for Danes to book early place in knockout stage

Denmark v Australia
Thursday, 13:00
Live on ITV

Strong position

Denmark started with a somewhat fortuitous 1-0 victory over Peru, being outshot two-to-one but scoring the decisive goal on the break through Yussef Poulsen after 59 minutes.

That puts them in a strong position and another win here would put them on the verge of qualification for the knockout stage, which would take much of the pressure off their final group game against France.

Age Hareide's starting line-up is fairly settled and it would be no surprise if there was no change from the Peru game, with Chelsea's Andreas Christensen again preferred to Brentford's Andreas Bjelland in central defence.

Brave display in defeat

Australia battled bravely against France in their opening match but were undone by a contentious penalty decision using VAR and an unfortunate own goal by Aziz Behich. Their 2-1 defeat means they probably need to take something from this match, preferably a win.

The only real surprise in Bert Van Marwijk's selection for the opening match was that he chose Mile Jedinak as his midfield anchor instead of Massimo Luongo. He could favour Luongo's greater energy here and teenage striker Daniel Arzani might get more than a handful of minutes this time if Australia find themselves behind again.

Set-pieces could be vital

Denmark are clearly best suited to striking on the counter, as they did against Peru when Christian Eriksen was released into space and set up Poulsen's winner, and they might well be content to sit back here and wait for that kind of opportunity.

Other than that, the best chances might come from set-pieces. The quality of Australia's dead balls was their greatest threat against France, first almost forcing an own goal and then panicking Samuel Umtiti into the handball that led to Jedinak's equaliser from the penalty spot.

Encouragingly for the Socceroos, Denmark conceded from a fairly standard free-kick in their qualification playoff against Ireland.

Denmark also offer a threat at set-pieces, both in the air and from Eriksen's dead-ball striking, and overall they look the more dangerous side.

Odds of 1.96 appear to underestimate the Danes and they are the pick despite the concern that they might not press forward that much.

Using the new Same Game Multi feature in the Sportsbook, Denmark to win and Eriksen to score anytime can be backed at 4.51.

Chase could bring goals

This might well be low-scoring, given that Denmark can play it safe, but over 2.5 goals looks overpriced at 2.54.

Denmark have had under 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine matches, the exception being their 5-1 second-leg win in the qualification playoff. That happened mainly because Ireland had to chase the game and a similar scenario could unfold here if Denmark get in front and Australia become desperate.

It is unclear whether Australia's attack is as limited from open play as it looked against France, but they could do better against this lower level of opposition.

Key Opta Stats for Denmark v Australia

This will be the fourth encounter between Denmark and Australia, their first at the World Cup. None of their previous fixtures – all friendlies – has ended in a draw (2 wins for Denmark, 1 for Australia). The Socceroos are 4.80 to win.

Australia have lost seven of their nine World Cup encounters against European opposition (W1 D1), their only win coming against Serbia in 2010 (2-1). Denmark are 1.94 to win.

Australia have lost each of their last four World Cup matches, conceding at least two goals in each game. Denmark are 3.00 to win half-time/full-time.

Australia have kept just one clean sheet in their 14 previous World Cup finals matches, a 0-0 draw with Chile in 1974. Over 2.5 goals is 2.50.

Only in their first ever appearance in 1986 have Denmark won both of their opening two matches in a World Cup campaign. The draw half-time/Denmark full-time double result is 4.50.

Denmark kept a clean sheet in their opening match against Peru, but have never kept consecutive shutouts in the World Cup before. Under 2.5 goals is 1.62.

All 28 of Denmark’s World Cup goals have come from inside the box. The Denmark striker Nicolai Jorgensen is 2.80 to find the net.

Goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel has kept a clean sheet in each of his last five matches for Denmark, last conceding a goal 534 minutes ago vs Republic of Ireland. Denmark are 2.20to keep a clean sheet.

Christian Eriksen has had a hand in 17 goals in his last 14 appearances for Denmark (12 goals, 5 assists). Eriksen is 3.50 to find the net.

Mile Jedinak’s goal against France was his second for Australia in World Cup finals matches. Only Tim Cahill (5) has scored more for the Socceroos in the competition (Brett Holman also two). Jedinak is [7.5] to score.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Denmark to win at 1.96