AFL PREVIEW ROUND 23 – GEELONG V GOLD COAST

GEELONG v GOLD COAST
GMHBA SAT 0145 PM

FORM

GEELONG (WWLLW)

The Cats bounced back from consecutive losses with a thumping 133 point win over the Dockers. Menegola, Kelly, Ablett and Selwood combined for 41 inside 50s and Tom Hawkins helped himself to 6 goals in the demolition.

It was however the performance of Lachie Henderson which stood out for the Wolf, he contributed eleven 1%’s and had the highest disposal efficiency of any player on the ground from his 20 touches in defence.

GOLD COAST (WLLLL)

Whilst there wasn’t much expected of the Suns in the QClash against the Brisbane Lions, Stuart Dew’s side almost stole a win, losing by just 4 points at the GABBA. Both Jack Bowes and Alex Sexton look to be players of the future for the Suns with Sexton kicking 4 goals and Bowes recording 19 touches and 7 inside 50s.

STATS THAT MATTER

• Unsurprisingly the 133 point win over the Dockers was the highest winning margin by the Cats this season. Their second biggest winning margin this season was against the Suns by 85 points in round 11.

• Brayden Fiorini will have his work cut out for him against the Cats elite midfield. The Suns midfielder was excellent against the Lions with 32 disposals, 5 inside 50s and 5 clearances.
• Despite their position on the ladder, the Suns are still the 4th ranked team in the competition for hit outs. Jarrod Witts against Ryan Abbott will be a key battle if the Suns are any chance in this match. Whilst they don’t have the elite midfield of Geelong, Witts should be able to get players like Fiorini and Swallow first use of the ball.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Whilst the line was set at 53.5 for the Fremantle game it has been bumped up to 73.5 against the Suns. Of course you don’t have to tell the Wolf that there isn’t much value in the head to head market for the favourite to win, but there is still plenty of value still to be found.

The Cats will be very motivated to defend 8th position at home which means lack of effort won’t be an issue. Port Adelaide are also on 48 points but currently out of the finals on percentage. If they defeat the Bombers on Friday night they will actually go into Saturday’s game sitting in 8th position.

The Gold Coast put in a very gutsy performance against the Lions but they still lost to the 15th placed team. Like a bad elevator the Wolf expects the Suns to drop a level and lose by a big margin against the Cats.

HOW IT’S SHAPING UP

Cats by 84

BEST BETS: Geelong Cats -75.5 ($1.92), Total points over 177.5 ($1.88)