AFL PREVIEW ROUND 23 – FREMANTLE V COLLINGWOOD

FREMANTLE v COLLINGWOOD
PERTH STADIUM SAT 0435 PM

FORM

FREMANTLE (LLLWL)

Ross Lyon was left like the rest of us, wondering what the hell happened to a Freo side that had lead against the Cats at quarter time but then failed to score another goal for the rest of the match. The line in this match is set at 34.5 so the Wolf needs to conclude whether the Dockers are going to put up a fight at home.

It appears as the season has continued Fremantle’s advantage at Optus Stadium has fallen away. The Dockers won 6 of their first 9 games at home before being blown out against the Hawks and Eagles by 50+ points in rounds 19 and 20. Whilst they bounced back against the Blues, the Magpies are a much stronger team and on the same level as both Hawthorn and West Coast.

COLLINGWOOD (WLLWW)

The Magpies used an inspired fourth quarter to defeat the Power at the MCG, piling on 7 last quarter goals to win the match by 51 points. Up by just 13 at three quarter time, Collingwood flicked a switch with relentless attacking pressure that translated into 9 scoring shots to just 1 for Port Adelaide.

STATS THAT MATTER

• The Magpies were a picture of efficiency in attack against the Power. Whilst the Power took 25 touches for each shot on goal, the Pies took just 13. They had more than double the amount of scoring shots (30-13) which will worry the Dockers who conceded 158 points.

• There were positives for the Dockers against the Cats. Nat Fyfe who was touch and go to play had 37 disposals and 7 clearances whilst Lachie Neale applied the pressure with 11 tackles and 26 disposals.

• It’s not a stretch to think that Fremantle aren’t going to win this game without some serious improvement on the scoreboard. The Dockers 25 points against the Cats was their lowest score of the season. They have cracked 100 points just three times this season and won all of those matches.

• The Magpies won their previous match by 61 points (77-138) at the MCG

• in round 11. The match actually turned into a shootout in the final term with both sides scoring 7 goals each.

WHAT TO EXPECT

The main concern is just how easily the Dockers can switch off. One minute they were right in the match against the Cats and the +53.5 line advantage was safe, the next minute Geelong had kicked 10 goals to zero and were ahead by 52 points at halftime.

The Magpies can potentially move up to second with a West Coast loss and some movement in percentage. Just .1% separates the two teams at the moment. On the other hand Hawthorn, Sydney and even GWS can leapfrog Collingwood if they win their matches and Collingwood lose.

The pressure is off Nathan Buckley’s men in terms of securing a final’s spot and the free hit at a double chance in September should allow them to play without as much pressure. The Wolf thinks they will get the job done.

HOW IT’S SHAPING UP

Collingwood by 37 points.

BEST BETS: Collingwood -33.5 ($1.92), Collingwood 1-39 ($2.20)