AFL PREVIEW ROUND 23 – BRISBANE V WEST COAST

BRISBANE v WEST COAST
GABBA SUN 0110 PM

FORM

BRISBANE (LLLLW)

It’s the end of another tough season for Brisbane who are making slow progress under Chris Fagan. The Lions find themselves with just 5 wins for the year. Despite the fact that they also won 5 games in 2017, Brisbane have avoided the wooden spoon to finish in 15th, with the Saints (4 wins), Suns (4 wins) and Blues (2 wins) all finishing below.

WEST COAST (WLWWL)

West Coast sit second on the AFL ladder on 60 points. Whilst they have no chance of catching the Tigers on top, they can be caught by the Magpies. If the Eagles lose and Collingwood win against the Dockers and make up the gap of just .2% separating the teams they will drop down to third. Whilst Jack Darling missed training on Monday he is still a chance to play against the Lions.

STATS THAT MATTER

• The line is set at 11.5 for this match. Only three of West Coast’s 15 wins this season have been by less than 11.5 points, against the Dockers (8 points), Giants (11 points) and Power (4 points).

• With Josh Kennedy out of the match and Jack Darling concussed early against the Demons, small forward Willie Rioli stood up for the Eagles with three goals.

• The Eagles must win the contested football against the Lions. Melbourne were clearly ‘on’ from the opening bounce last weekend and that showed statistically with the Demons winning the contested ball 159-137 and clearances (43-29).

• Dayne Beams was superb against the Suns with 38 disposals, 8 marks and 9 clearances.

• Lions captain Dayne Zorko was held to 17 disposals by Touk Miller and ended the match in controversy, refusing to shake the Gold Coast taggers hand. In fairness Zorko had probably seen enough of those hands as they had been all over him for four quarters of football.

WHAT TO EXPECT

The line in this match is set at just 11.5 and the Wolf thinks the Lions will need more than that to cover the Eagles at the GABBA. West Coast keep losing key players with Darling joining Naitanui, Gaff and Kennedy on the sidelines. The Eagles might fancy their chances of getting the job done without the key forward and instead give him a weeks rest. His absence was certainly felt in the forward in their loss against Melbourne.  

HOW IT’S SHAPING UP

West Coast by 27

BEST BETS: West Coast Eagles 1-39 ($2.05), West Coast Eagles -11.5 ($1.92)