Woking v Watford: Huge underdogs to at least get a goal

Woking v Watford
Sunday January 6, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Opportunity of a lifetime for Woking

This is the stuff of dreams for a club like Woking. A big home tie in the third Round of the FA Cup that will boost the coffers, give the whole place a lift and make it a day to remember for years to come for everyone at the club. But perhaps best of all is the fact that plenty of people around the club will genuinely believe this may not be the last match their team will be involved in regarding this year's edition.

A profitable replay at Vicarage Road would be as good as a win for the money men and if you're going to be having a real go at a giant-killing act against a Premier League club, then Watford on home soil isn't a bad draw for you.

Their FA Cup form to get this far is no fluke. They're currently second in the National League South table, just two points behind Woking and with two games in hand. Curiously, it was Torquay that they beat in the First Round Proper (1-0) before going on to beat Swindon (also 1-0) in the next round. Both games were away from home.

Are Watford going to have a go at FA Cup glory?

It will be interesting to see how seriously Watford take the FA Cup this year. There's no reason why they shouldn't take it as seriously as possible. A good start to the season means they're eighth in the table and they'd have to go on an absolutely disastrous run for there to even be any talk of relegation.

But only Javier Gracia knows what the exact plan is. He may go all out in the competition or he may decide it's a good chance to find out a little more about some of his less busy players and give his big guns a breather.

That could mean that the likes of Tom Cleverley, Stefano Osaka and Nathaniel Chalobah could all get a game here if that proves to be the case.

Home 'conditions' could be a great leveller

If you're going to be brave and take on Watford, it's unlikely to be because of historical stats.

Unsurprisingly, this is unfamiliar territory for the hosts. They're playing for the first time in the FA Cup third round since 1996 and have never beaten top-flight opposition in four attempts. Similarly unsurprisingly is the fact they've never played Watford before.

But stats are only one part of football betting. Sold out it may be for this one but Kingsfield Stadium has a capacity of just over 6,000 (2,500 seated) and the pitch is unlikely to be of the same standard that 'thoroughbreds' like Roberto Pereyra and Gerard Deulofeu are used to. So hardly a familiar sort of setting either on or off the pitch for the Watford men.

Add to that the fact that his match arguably means a hell of a lot more to the Woking players than the Watford ones- other than a desire for avoiding embarrassment - and you start to believe this may not be that straightforward for the Hornets.

If you want to accuse me of just regurgitating FA Cup clichés, then go ahead. But 1/6 on the Premier League outfit is no price for me given the circumstances. There are two decent ways to go about things. Take Woking on the Double Chance market at 7/2 on the Sportsbook or lay-to-back Watford at 1.23 on the Exchange.

Well, if Woking have scored in 27 games in a row...

The only reason I'm not going with one of the above bets is because I have a better one in terms of value.

Watford have kept just four clean sheets all season in the Premier League and have kept just one in their last 11 when they went and beat West Ham 2-0 away. We're not suggesting Woking's attackers are in the same class as what they face in the Premier League week-in-week-out of course but you can only score goals against the sides you're facing.

And there have been no shortage of those. Woking are averaging over two goals a game this season in the league and their current form when it comes to scoring is even more impressive. Their last eight games in all competitions have yielded 24 goals for them and you'd have to go back to mid-August, 27 games ago, for the last time they didn't score.

We should assume Watford will get one so it's not hard to make a case for 'yes' on both teams to score at 6/5.

A trio of Woking goalscorers to consider

It would be foolish to try and pick a Watford goalscorer at this stage, given the uncertainty regarding what sort of side Gracia might pick. But if the big names play, you might like to know skipper Troy Deney is 5/6 to score anytime, while the classy Pereyra is 7/5.

If like me you believe Woking can get one, then here some names to consider. Max Kretzschmar has 12 goals this season and is rated 7/2 to score anytime. Jake Hyde has 11 goals and is the same price. As is winger Jamar Loza, whose 11 goals this season include four in various Cup competitions. The trio are all 12/1 for first goalscorer honours.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back both teams to score in Woking v Watford @ 6/5