
That's why it always worries me when any club or international team is going into the game which will match or beat their best-ever sequence of unbeaten games or successive wins. You want an example? Newcastle were huge odds-on to go one better than Kevin Keegan's 1994 record of nine wins in a row at home to Blackburn on Saturday, yet somehow managed to lose 1-0.
All of which brings us to Eddie Jones and his all-conquering England rugby team, who are just 1.36 to wrap up a triumphant Autumn International series by beating Australia at Twickenham on Saturday. If they do they will match the 14-match winning sequence set by Sir Clive Woodward's side on the way to winning the 2003 World Cup.
Now there's no doubt that Jones has been a whirlwind of change and success since he was handed the task of reviving the Red Rose side after Stuart Lancaster's reign had ended so disastrously.
The RFU went from Lancaster's classroom approach to the Australian's old-school dictator type of regime and somehow the same group of players were energised and effective. Treated like grown-ups, they have responded like grown-ups. The 3-0 series win in Australia was a triumph.
In this Autumn series they have shown how far the winning mentality has developed, digging in against Argentina with 14 men for all but the first five minutes after Wasps winger Elliot Daly was shown a red card.
It would be foolish to think, however, that the Aussie side which will turn up at Twickenham on Saturday will be as easy to beat as they were on their own soil during our summer. They have already proved on this tour that they have made huge progress since that spectacular whitewash.
Of course they were edged out 27-24 by Ireland in Dublin last weekend, but wins over Wales, Scotland and France have proved a new durability and in centre Tevita Kuridrani, who has scored in every one of their tour matches, they have discovered a huge new talent.
The way Jones has started a row over scrumming tactics makes you wonder if he's not the tiniest bit nervous. Within minutes of the win over Argentina he was demanding a meeting with referee Jaco Peyper to discuss "issues" with Australia's set piece. In no time his opposite number Michael Cheika had taken the bait accusing England prop Dan Cole of having "made a career out of infringing the laws".
Both of them will get their chance to talk to the South African official tomorrow, but good luck with that. Peyper is still under fire in Dublin from his poor handling of the Ireland-New Zealand game when the All Blacks got away with all sorts of skulduggery.
It threatens to make for a bad tempered game at Twickenham, and while that will be great as a spectacle I'm not sure it's necessarily good for England. Jones and his side should have enough to edge through, but no way are they worth backing at such a short price. If there's value anywhere it's the 2.42 for an England win by 1-12 points in the winning margin market.
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