Sunday 18 December, 13:30Live on Sky Sports 1
Southampton
Match Odds
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Half Time Score
Ref Watch
Recommended Bet
Back Southampton on Draw No Bet at 1.90
Opta Stat
Four of the last five competitive meetings between Bournemouth and Southampton have ended in a 2-0 win for the team playing at home. A 2-0 win for Bournemouth can be backed at 17.00.
Bournemouth
Eddie Howe's side continued their recent sequence of loss followed by win when they bounced back from defeat at Burnley last Saturday to beat Leicester 1-0 at home on Tuesday night. They have yet to win consecutive matches this season.
That victory took them to 10th in the table, sandwiched between two other teams also on 21 points. The team just ahead of them (by a goal difference of two) is Southampton as they prepare to square up for this south-coast derby.
The Saints have taken four points this week in what has become their typically dour style, with a 1-0 home victory over Middlesbrough and a goalless draw at Stoke.
Scoring is definitely the problem for Claude Puel's side, especially with Charlie Austin (scorer of six of their 15 league goals) out for up to four months with a shoulder injury.
The defensive midfielder Oriol Romeu, another important player, is suspended for this match.
The stats say Bournemouth are the better attacking side (22 goals to Southampton's 14) and win more often (six times, against five) but that their defence is more vulnerable (25 goals conceded to Southampton's 15) and they lose more regularly (seven times, against five).
So this is really all about weighing up whether Bournemouth's brightness will win out against Southampton's solidity.
A positive for Bournemouth is that they have won five out of eight at home this season, losing against contrasting teams in Manchester United and Sunderland, and their home record against teams outside the top six is a strong W4 D0 L1.
All of their defeats (home or away) have come when their opponents scored two or more goals, which is something the Saints have not done in the Premier League since the 3-1 home win over Burnley on October 16, when Austin scored twice.
But the Cherries' defence is a worry, as they have conceded in 11 matches and won only two of them (6-1 at home to second-bottom Hull and in that crazy 4-3 at home to Liverpool).
The concern with Southampton is what's happening (or not) up front, with only one goal scored in the league by any player other than Austin in almost two months. That was Sofiane Boufal's winner against Middlesbrough last Sunday.
But Puel's side have been a tough proposition for most sides outside the elite, with a record of W5 D4 L2 against teams below the top six. They have scored in most of those games (eight out of 11) and have a record of W5 D2 L1 when they have, which indicates a solid chance against Bournemouth even with their attacking issues.
Those issues may be overplayed, as the focus of their attack so far has been Austin and his absence gives others - particularly summer signing Boufal and Shane Long - the opportunity to take a more central role that has not always been available.
It is worth noting the Opta stat that, although Southampton have scored only four goals in their last eight Premier League games, they have attempted 101 shots in total in those games. And scoring droughts - like winning or losing runs - do not last forever. Last season, when Southampton finished sixth under Ronald Koeman, they had two lengthy runs (of six matches and then seven) where they struggled to score (nil or one each time).
It is not as if Bournemouth tend to be prolific in this sort of match-up, as they have scored just eight goals in seven games against teams above them in the table (four in six taking out the Liverpool match). Half of their league goals have been against bottom-eight sides and nearly half have come in just two matches (the big wins over Hull and Liverpool).
Backing the sounder defence in closely matched games is often a good strategy and Southampton get the nod on draw no bet at1.90.
Unless Bournemouth get well on top, this looks likely to be a low scorer and under 2.5 goals is strong favourite at 1.72.
Southampton have had 11 out of 16 under 2.5 goals (joint-highest in the league), including six of their last eight.
Bournemouth have had an even split (eight over, eight under) but if we look at both teams against sides outside the top six they have had an identical seven out of 11 (64%) under 2.5 goals.
As on Wednesday night, when Southampton visited Stoke, a 0-0 scoreline at the break is well worth considering at 2.60. That match brought the Saints' number of goalless first halves to seven in 16 matches, although against that Bournemouth have had only three.
Mark Clattenburg is arguably the best referee in England, if not in Europe, and in general he is pretty close to the average in number of cards issued. Which probably means we should not read too much into the fact that his midweek game - Everton's win over Arsenal - was pushed higher by Phil Jagielka's late red card.
But this is a derby and Opta point out that there has been a red card in three of the last four competitive meetings between these sides, with two being shown to Southampton players.
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