Wednesday December 21, 19:00Live in BT Sport
Back RB Leipzig +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at [2.23]
Hertha Berlin v Darmstadt
Wednesday December 21, 19:00
Back Hertha -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.10
FC Koln v Bayer Leverkusen
Wednesday December 21, 19:00
Back Koln Draw No Bet at [2.13]
One of the criticisms of the Bundesliga in recent seasons is that no-one has really been able to stand up to Bayern Munich. Borussia Dortmund pushed the title race into the final month of the campaign last term, but fell away at the end. This season, newly-promoted RB Leipzig are the chief challengers, and they visit the Allianz Arena level on points with the champions.
While Bayern and Dortmund have produced some great attacking displays at times this season, I believe Leipzig have been the best team to watch on a consistent basis. They attack with speed and adventure, and they have featured some of the league's top performers. 20-year-old striker Timo Werner has scored nine goals, and is starting to look like the complete package. Swedish midfielder Emil Forsberg has been a revelation, scoring five goals and setting up eight more.
Forsberg is one of the players who helped Die Roten Bullen win promotion last term, and many of those players have stepped up with no trouble at all. Austrian wide forward Marcel Sabitzer has been superb, striker Yussuf Poulsen has worked incredibly hard to make space for Werner and the midfielders, and young centre-back Willi Orban has been sensational.
Leipzig have the best away record in the league, with 17 points collected from an available 24. Coach Ralph Hasenhuttl has put together a tactical scheme that keeps opponents at bay, but also allows his attacking players room to express themselves.
Bayern started their first season under Carlo Ancelotti like a greyhound out of a trap, but they have stumbled since. Ancelotti has been too strongly wedded to his preferred 4-3-3 formation, and all too often Bayern's approach play has been ponderous and has lacked incisiveness. There has been an overreliance on the goals of Robert Lewandowski, with Thomas Mueller misfiring, and injuries hampering both Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery.
There have also been gaps defensively. Bayern have kept just three clean sheets in their last ten Bundesliga games, and for all the pre-season talk of Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng forming an all-star defensive partnership, Javi Martinez has actually been Bayern's most consistent centre-back this term.
Of course, these issues are all relative, and Bayern are still top on goal difference. However, there are certainly weaknesses for an excellent Leipzig team to exploit. Bayern are 1.48 to win this, and that seems too short to me. If you back Leipzig +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.22, you'll have a decent winner if Bayern fail to win, and you'll only lose your stake if Leipzig lose by two goals.
Recommended Bet
After a wonderful start to the season, Hertha have hit a brick wall in the last fortnight. A very flat performance against Werder Bremen yielded a 1-0 loss, Hertha's first failure to win at home this season. That was followed by a 2-0 reverse at Leipzig, in which Pal Dardai's men were clearly second best.
However, the basic truth is this - Hertha have won all but one of their home games in the Bundesliga, and on Wednesday night they face the worst team in the division. Darmstadt have lost their last seven league games, they are rock bottom, and they'll be drained after a heroic but ultimately fruitless performance against Bayern on Sunday.
Hertha are generously priced at 1.63 for the win, but the capital club have scored at least twice in all but one of their home games, and I fancy them to win this comfortably.
Recommended Bet
This is a Rhineland derby that means a lot to both sides in terms of how optimistically they go into the winter break. Koln fans are dreaming of European qualification, and the Billy Goats go into this game in seventh spot, just two points outside the Europa League spots. Coach Peter Stoger has done a terrific job in the last few years, winning promotion and building on that success with a reliable gameplan and excellent man-management.
A rock-solid defence and hard-working midfield sets the platform, and Anthony Modeste scores the goals. The imposing Frenchman has netted 27 goals in 49 Bundesliga games, an amazing record in a team that isn't exactly awash with creativity.
Koln are unbeaten at home this term, and they will have no fear of facing a Bayer Leverkusen side that is desperately struggling for form. On Matchday 14, they played with 11 men against 10 for most of the match at Schalke, and were comprehensively outplayed, only to snatch an undeserved late winner. On Sunday, they put in the worst performance I've ever seen them produce under coach Roger Schmidt, as they lost 2-1 at home to relegation-threatened Ingolstadt. The fans at the BayArena booed from the 15-minute mark onwards, and Leverkusen now find themselves seven points off the top four.
Schmidt deserves the chance to turn things around. Leverkusen have reached the last 16 of the Champions League, and they dug themselves out of a hole last season, but the form has to improve soon. Chicharito has now gone more than ten hours without a Bundesliga goal, his worst drought since moving to Germany, and the defence is making some bad errors. To make matters worse, Charles Aranguiz will be missing from the midfield because of suspension.
Koln are so strong at home, they'll have a raucous set of fans roaring their support, and Leverkusen are short of confidence.
Recommended Bet
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