Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3
Both Juventus and Roma had big wins last week, which teed up Saturday night's game beautifully: Juve recovered from an early shock to win the Turin derby, while Roma were fortunate to beat Milan. Juve are 1.78 to win this, and to take a seven-point lead at the top as we approach the winter break.
Juve have some key absentees, but I can't oppose them with a Roma team that I feel has been a little fortunate in recent weeks: having lost at Atalanta, they scraped past Pescara and then were lucky against both Lazio and Milan. It's hard to see that theme continuing for another week.
Roma aren't the free-flowing team of the start of the season, but that means that you can back Over 2.5 goals at 1.86, and with Juventus often involved in much higher-scoring games than perceived, that's a price worth taking. It served us well in the Turin derby, and there's no reason to desert that strategy now.
Juve are going for their 25th consecutive home win, and the record-equaling potential of the night will add to the pressure on them: but Juve often seem at their best when under pressure, and I expect them to negotiate an apparently difficult night with a 2-1 or 3-1 win.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals in Juventus v Roma @1.86
Another game that seems certain to feature plenty of goals is Torino's trip to Napoli on Sunday afternoon. Napoli stuttered for a while after Arkadiusz Milik's injury, and we were able to make some money by opposing goals in their games. Now though, they're back as an attacking force and so we need a different approach.
Napoli destroyed Cagliari 5-0 last time, with Dries Mertens scoring a hat trick and proving that he IS capable of operating as a deep lying central striker. It's in Torino's nature to attack, and I don't think that Sinisa Mihajlovic will go to the San Paolo and shut up shop.
Since they drew 0-0 at Pescara on September 21, nine of Torino's 11 Serie A games have featured three goals or more, with six of those having four or more. Add Napoli's style and newly found rhythm to that and you have a pretty heady cocktail.
And this season's statistics back up the idea of this being a high-scoring game. Only Roma and Juventus have scored more goals than the 32 each that these two have managed.
The question is how to best make a profit from the game? Over 2.5 goals are trading at 1.62, so I'm prepared to take a chance that there'll be at least four goals. That eventuality is on offer at 2.36, and it's a price worth taking.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals in Napoli v Torino @2.36
Finally, a word about our Sunday evening game, to round off a really exciting looking set of weekend fixtures. I watched Fiorentina scrape past Sassuolo on Monday evening, and to me, they're an unconvincing side.
Lazio have won four of their last five in Serie A against La Violaand I expect that trend to continue. Fiorentina make mistakes, and Lazio have proved all season long that they're good enough to punish them.
They keep things tight, too. No team in the top European League has conceded fewer than Lazio's three first half goals, and I see this game as tight for half an hour, before Fiorentina get sloppy and allow Lazio to capitalise.
Ciro Immobile might not have scored for five Serie A games, but Lazio have lots of potential goal-scorers in their ranks and so that won't trouble them too much.
I'd have fancied Lazio to win this anyway, but the added distraction for Fiorentina of a Thursday night game against Genoa means that the recovery time argument is also on the side of the home team. I'd make Lazio odds on to win this, and the fact that they're not means that we should capitalise.
Recommended Bet: Back Lazio to beat Fiorentina @ 2.06
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